AOPA Air Safety Foundation releases 2007 'Nall Report'

November 11, 2009

AOPA Air Safety Foundation releases 2007 'Nall Report'
General aviation accident trend continues to improve

The AOPA Air Safety Foundation’s just-released 2007 Joseph T. Nall Report, an analysis of general aviation accidents from the previous year, shows that general aviation accidents are continuing on a downward trend. The number of accidents per 100,000 flight hours decreased from 7.19 in 1997 to an all-time low of 6.32 in 2006, while the fatal accident rate dropped 7.4 percent during the same time frame.

“Even with a slight uptick in the number of hours flown in 2006 compared to 2005, pilots are flying fewer hours than they did five years ago,” said Bruce Landsberg, AOPA Air Safety Foundation executive director. “But the accident rate shows pilots are flying safer.”

For example, from 2002 to 2006, the number of accidents declined by 10.8 percent, while the number of estimated flight hours decreased only 5.9 percent. The general aviation accident trend for 2006 also matches the long-term downward trend, with total accidents decreasing 8.3 percent and fatal accidents decreasing 6.5 percent from 2005.

“This trend information is more reliable than yearly snapshots,” Landsberg said. “In addition to seeing that the overall accident rate is decreasing, we’re also able to see which areas of flight tend to have the most accidents and then tailor our safety education efforts.”

The report reveals that the long-term trend for weather-related accidents is increasing. Visual flight rules (VFR) flight into instrument conditions continues to account for the majority of fatal weather accidents in single-engine aircraft.

“One possible explanation is that more cross-country flying is being undertaken in new, technologically advanced aircraft,” Landsberg writes in the report. “The negative trend in weather accidents also illustrates the difficulty of teaching judgment skills to a broad group of pilots flying under diverse circumstances.”

The Air Safety Foundation is working to educate pilots about weather-related accidents. Earlier this year the foundation and FAA mailed more than 180,000 CDs to instrument-rated pilots with information about avoiding thunderstorms. Two of the foundation’s online courses focus specifically on weather, Weather Wise: Ceiling and Visibility and Weather Wise: Thunderstorms and ATC. Both are available on the Air Safety Foundation’s Web site, www.aopa.org/asf/.

Another trend is a decrease in maneuvering flight accidents, down from 33.1 percent of fatal accidents in 2005 to 25 percent in 2006. However, fatal descent and approach accidents increased from 10.3 percent to 19 percent.

“No matter what accident statistics you look at, pilot decision making continues to be the leading cause of all accidents,” Landsberg said. For the last several years, the foundation has provided free decision making DVDs to all new private pilots and for those just getting their instrument rating to help them to apply their new skills safely.

“We as the general aviation community have a lot of work to do to continue improving pilot safety,” Landsberg added, “and the Air Safety Foundation will do its part to educate pilots through free, informative, and entertaining safety courses, seminars, and materials.”

The Nall Report, available online at www.aopa.org/asf/publications/07nall.pdf, provides an overview of the general aviation accident statistics, trends, and contributing factors from the previous year, the latest year for which NTSB accident data is available.

The AOPA Air Safety Foundation, the world’s largest nonprofit general aviation safety organization, was founded in 1950 solely to help general aviation pilots improve flight safety. Since that time, the general aviation total accident rate has dropped by more than 90 percent despite a large increase in general aviation flight hours. ASF produces live seminars, online interactive courses, training DVDs, written Safety Advisors and other aviation safety materials for free distribution to all general aviation pilots.

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December 21, 2007