February 17, 2010
By Thomas A. Horne
Aviation consultant Brian Foley predicts good news for business jet deliveries over the next 10 years. “We see deliveries rising at a steady 2.7 percent per year (compound annual growth rate) between now and 2019,” Foley said. He said that 8,900 business jets worth $170 billion will be delivered through the period, according to a statement. He also said that about 48 percent of these deliveries will go to non-North-American markets, compared to a historical 30 percent of deliveries.
“Choosing 2010 as a starting point was key for Foley. “2009 was too unsettled and 2008 was a clear anomaly, an unsustainable peak. Our same numbers would yield a minus growth of -2.6 percent if measured against 2008, but that’s not really useful information. We won’t see such high delivery rates again this decade because of tougher financing for aircraft purchase and especially the maturing of fractional, which are becoming a replacement rather than a growth market,” Foley said.
Foley also predicted Jet-A fuel consumption for the next 10 years. He forecasts 21 billion gallons to be consumed in the next decade, with the annual average reaching 2.5 billion gallons in 2019.
For more information about Brian Foley Associates, visit his Web site.
AOPA Pilot Editor at Large Tom Horne has worked at AOPA since the early 1980s. He began flying in 1975 and has an airline transport pilot and flight instructor certificates. He’s flown everything from ultralights to Gulfstreams and ferried numerous piston airplanes across the Atlantic.
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