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Jet market coolingJet market cooling

Experts trim predictionsExperts trim predictions

Honeywell’s “Global Business Aviation Outlook,” released Oct. 30, has scaled back its predictions of last year, forecasting there will be 8,600 new business jet deliveries during the next 10 years valued at $255 billion, a 6 to 7 percent reduction in values from the 2015 forecast. The 2015 Honeywell report called for 9,200 jets during the next 10 years worth $270 billion. 

The "Global Business Aviation Outlook" forecasts up to 8,600 new business jet deliveries worth $255 billion from 2016 to 2026, which represents a 6 to 7 percent reduction over the values noted in the 2015 forecast.

Jetcraft, in its second-ever forecast a few weeks ago, predicted only 7,879 deliveries during the next 10 years worth $248 billion.

The two reports seem to confirm what other analysts are saying. Richard Aboulafia of the Teal Group, writing an article titled, “Bear Markets” in the Sept. 26 Aviation Week, said, “We don’t know when the market will find a deliveries floor.” J.P. Morgan’s monthly business jet report for October noted its analysts have lowered 2016 delivery estimates. “Expect a quiet NBAA,” said one headline in the J.P. Morgan report.

Honeywell’s analysts found interest in new aircraft starting in 2018 and 2019. Here are key points from the Honeywell report.

  • Deliveries will decline slightly this year to 650 to 675 new jets.
  • Deliveries will be slightly lower next year, reflecting the transition to new models entering service in 2017 and 2018.
  • Operators will continue to keep their focus on larger-cabin aircraft.
  • A 3- to 4-percent average annual growth rate is expected, despite the lower short-term outlook, according to the longer-range forecast through 2026.

The Jetcraft report made these points.

  • Gulfstream will secure the highest revenue market share over the forecast period thanks to an expanded family of large aircraft.
  • Cessna will regain market leadership from Bombardier in unit deliveries, with Bombardier slipping to second.
  • Honeywell will be the "dominant player" among avionics companies.
  • Pratt and Whitney Canada will supplant Rolls-Royce as the market-share leader, aided by Gulfstream’s family of large aircraft.

Honeywell noted in its report that the "…pace of flight activity has not recovered," and J.P. Morgan’s report noted a 2.1-percent increase in flight operations in August "…does not provide much relief." Both used inventory and used pricing have declined, the report said. The report also noted Bombardier is "…sounding more open to selling" Learjet.

The Honeywell report indicated continued improvements in Chinese and Russian purchase plans, with other analysts indicating that the Chinese government’s shaming of businessmen buying private jets has left a chill on that market.

Alton Marsh

Alton K. Marsh

Freelance journalist
Alton K. Marsh is a former senior editor of AOPA Pilot and is now a freelance journalist specializing in aviation topics.
Topics: National Business Aviation Association, Jet