Some people characterized the recent National Business Aircraft Association convention as a wake. True, everything is not coming up roses in the turbine airplane business, but declaring the end and folding the tent is hardly appropriate. Actually, the convention did set new records in attendance and other things, including, yes, the number of used turbine airplanes offered for sale. It also set new standards in excellent promotion, especially for the exciting new Gulfstream V.
The NBAA show was followed, in a few weeks, by AOPA Expo '92 in Las Vegas, which really set new records. An all-time high in everything was recorded as AOPA members swarmed to Las Vegas in a record number of airplanes — so many that they filled all 600 parking spaces at North Las Vegas Air Terminal and McCarran International Airport. If anyone doubts the great current interest in general aviation, they should have attended AOPA Expo '92.
I attended my first NBAA convention in 1954 and have only missed three since then. Add to that all the other conventions and meetings, and I've been to hundreds. The changes in them over time, I think, reflects on the current status of aviation.
I was 21 when I attended my first NBAA convention, and at the time, I felt I was the youngest person there. I can't still feel that way, but at both the NBAA and AOPA conventions, I was a little taken by the lack of younger people in attendance. There were some but not a lot. One pleasant surprise in Las Vegas came when my ex-neighbor from New Jersey, Rorick Larson, stopped to say hello. He asked me 10 years ago if aviation offered any future. You can guess what I said. In his late 20s, Rorick is now a captain in the U.S. Army, instructing in helicopters at Fort Rucker, Alabama. Unfortunately, most of the rest of the folks I visited with at the convention were more nearly my age, and while I enjoy talking about the good old days, there's not much future in them. There are programs to interest younger people in aviation, and as individuals, we need to work on this.
The other change that stands out is the building interest in software and the declining interest in hardware. In the 1950s, the meetings were centered around the airport, and we all spent hours wandering among and admiring the airplanes. Now the largest number of displays are in the convention hall, and the biggest crowd-pleasers are things related to computers, navigation, and aviation education. Often, the aircraft manufacturers' booths were empty while there were great crowds at, for example, the AzureSoft display, where its Elite personal- computer-based flight simulator was getting a workout.
I love the software side of the business but am concerned that, if we don't focus more interest on the hardware side, there may not be any use for the software in the future. I wonder, too, why there is not more interest in the airplanes themselves. It is quite true that they are expensive, but they always have been. I ran into my old buddy Chuck Bockstahler in Las Vegas. Chuck was the Piper employee of longest standing when the company laid off most of its staff before its recent rejuvenation. He is now in California, selling American General Tigers. He said that $140,000 is a lot of bucks for an IFR Tiger but that a recent show put this in context for him. His spot was next to Mercedes-Benz's, and it had cars on display that were in the same price range but that are, by law, limited to a speed just over one third of what the Tiger will do.
There was a panel discussion on kit airplanes, and some interesting comments were made there about cost. The simple fact is, according to the kit-airplane builders themselves, you don't really save any money building your own. The real purpose in doing it yourself is the enjoyment, the education, and winding up with what is truly a personal airplane. There will be no "cheap" airplane when some of the kits are certified and offered as finished products, either. The prices will be at or well above the $45,000 average retail of the last Cessna 152s built. Some of the more exotic high-performance kit airplanes are, with full IFR equipment, reaching up into the $200,000 class, and pressurization is just around the corner for the Lancair IV.
If price doesn't completely drive the lack of interest in new airplanes, the lack of sizzle takes up any slack. Is there nothing new and better and exciting? There certainly is in the kit market where, for example, the Glasair III and the Lancair IV are about as classy looking as airplanes can get. When this is considered on certified production airplanes, though, you have to look at history for some guidance. Cessna made a bold attempt to bring something new in the late 1960s with the Cardinal. It was originally to replace the stodgy old 172, but everyone took a look, flew it, and demanded that the Cardinal not replace the 172. The airplane drifted and then went out of production well before the 172. The Windecker Eagle, a composite four-place retractable, was certified but never attracted much attention. Almost every strong effort to offer a new look or some sizzle went away. Indeed, the feeling that aviation is ingrained with an airframe status quo is evident in the exciting new Learjet 45. It is an all-new airplane from the tires up, but the company has purposely designed it to closely resemble earlier Learjets.
The plateau in technology is not just the province of general aviation. The most exciting jets to look at remain, to me, the Lockheed F- 104, the Northrop T-38, and the Concorde — all ancient designs. I haven't had my hands on the handlebars of an F-104 but can say that the other two are as nice to fly as they are to look at.
Personally, I like airplanes, almost all of them. I only met one really bad one — the Prescott Pusher. All the other relationships have been good, but I do have to admit that at times, the airplane seems a vehicle to fly all the good things in the panel around. While moving the wheel, wiggling the pedals, and trying to use the correct amount of power is still deeply satisfying, the devices in the instrument panel offer at least an equal challenge. Perhaps that is one of the reasons more people are not attracted to aviation. It has gotten too far away from basic airmanship. We can play computer games at home or at work, so why attach them to an airplane? I know if I were again setting out to teach someone to fly, I'd start them in a new Taylorcraft, sans radios, and stick with that airplane up to the cross-country stage. Then, having learned how to fly, they could learn to do the other things that have become an integral part of going somewhere in an airplane.
There is no question that it is a lot easier to raise questions on this subject than it is to provide answers. At least a lot of people are trying to find ways to build new airplanes, and their success will determine the future of aviation in the United States. The fact is if we do not stimulate the development and production of new airplanes, we'll someday run out of old ones to fly.
Island paradise
Just like someone's level of expertise increases with the distance away from home, destinations often seem to improve with distance. If you put a lot of effort into getting there, you just have to like the place.
I found a great exception to this rule in the fall. A group of us went the relatively short distance to Ocracoke island, on North Carolina's outer banks, just south of Cape Hatteras. The only ways to reach the island are by ferry — more than two hours from the mainland — or by airplane. It has a 3,000-foot paved strip right next to the beach and a large parking area, which turned out to be not large enough the weekend we were there. Our congenial group arrived in seven airplanes; another group from Virginia had more than 20 airplanes there. There were also airplanes not associated with either group.
The little town of Ocracoke, population about 500, is a mile or so away from the airport and surrounds a nice harbor. The ferries come and go, and there are a lot of other boats around. The hotels are good, and the Anchorage Inn (919/928-1101) is owned and run by pilots who will pick guests up at the airport. There are also good places to eat, and if you like to fish, they'll take you out for that as well. It's a nice fishing village, and it seems a world away.
We did have an interesting event when it came time to fly away. The weather had, as was predicted, turned sour. It was raining on Sunday morning. I thought of all those airplanes and the fact that you can't talk to anyone on the ground and that radar service ends when you are about 3,000 feet on the descent.
I was up early, but we were still third or fourth on the list for an IFR release time. Fortunately, the weather hadn't gotten that bad — the visibility was pretty good, and a clearly defined cloud base looked to be 5,000 or 6,000 feet high. Rather than wait for a release time, I decided to take off and climb VFR over the airport until I could talk to the controller about the matter. That way, I had the option of returning and landing if the weather seemed questionable.
I got the controller when about 3,000 feet high, and he said if I could make 5,000 VFR, he would give me a clearance home. That worked, and we were soon headed home.
One other airplane left VFR and flew up the beach, past Kitty Hawk, which every pilot should visit, and got a clearance when around Manteo. Then the weather collapsed, and the rest were left to wait for IFR releases. It took until early afternoon to get all the airplanes launched.
The moral to the story is to plan ahead when going to an airport where there might be some traffic but there is no real IFR service. If you know what the deal is beforehand, you can get up early or plan to relax while everyone else leaves and then fly later.
Ocracoke is a neat spot, and I forgot to tell you about the ride to the airport in the rain — in the back of a pickup. It had been a long time since I had done that.
