Waypoints

A 1,000-nm trip with clear, smooth air and a tailwind — westbound — all the way. Some days the flying gets no better.

The fat, dumb, and happy syndrome reigned supreme as we tooled along with 15 knots to our backs. Over West Virginia, fog smoothed the wrinkles of the Appalachians, leaving only the highest peaks to drink up the early morning light and turn the trees to red, orange, and gold.

By the time we crossed the Ohio River for the second time, just north of Louisville, the fog had melted away, revealing the rolling hills of Kentucky and then the flatlands of southern Indiana. The single runway at French Lick, our fuel stop, became visible from some 20 miles out.

The pristine weather continued on to Wichita, our destination, with the tailwind finally giving up about 100 miles out; any westbound trip without a headwind is a good flight.

Since even before the statute of repose legislation passed Congress last August, most everyone in the industry has been curious as to whether Cessna would really begin production of 172s, 182s, and 206s again, as it had promised to do if the bill passed. Of course, that was our first question too as we toured the company's massive facilities at Mid-Continent Airport and across town at the Pawnee plant, where nearly all the piston airplanes were built until production stopped in 1986. The Pawnee shop now churns out parts and subassemblies for Cessna's seemingly ever-expanding Citation business jet line.

It's hard to walk the aisles of the Cessna production lines and halls of the office buildings without getting caught up in the excitement that emanates from the place. The whole company is teeming with energy and abounds with the vibrancy one might expect from a young, entrepreneurial enterprise, rather than from an 83-year-old concern with nearly 6,000 employees. Measured in employees and units delivered, it's a much smaller operation than it was 15 years ago when production reached 8,000 aircraft a year and employment topped out at 25,000. But in revenues, it's looking very strong and as if 1994 will be among Cessna's best years ever.

And though Cessna owns the light jet market and much of the mid- sized market, it has continued to refine its Citations and offer updated products. The Citation V Ultra, introduced just over a year ago, has sold well, including a single $150-million order last summer to Executive Jet Aviation for 25 airplanes with an option for 25 more. At the Farnborough air show in England in September, Cessna announced the Citation Bravo, a replacement for the Citation II, itself the best selling business jet ever. A month later, at the National Business Aircraft Association convention in New Orleans, Cessna unveiled another iteration of the Citation, the Excel, a step-up airplane for those flying the Citation V.

Meanwhile, Federal Express last month exercised its option for a second block of 25 Caravans. It ordered the first block earlier this year. When these aircraft are all delivered in late 1996, the express delivery carrier will operate 250 of the single-engine turboprops.

The day we were in Wichita, the Citation X, Cessna's new high- speed mid-size jet, was out on a test flight where it reached speeds of Mach .92. Because it has no airplanes of its own fast enough to keep up with the new bizjet, Cessna was forced to rent a T-38 jet trainer to fly chase.

Cessna's entry in the military's Joint Primary Aircraft Training System, a derivative of the CitationJet, recently completed its demonstration flights with the Department of Defense. The JPATS airplane showed off the company's ability to fast-track a development program when necessary. Cessna decided to enter the program in November 1992. It flew the first airplane 13 months later and certified it in June of this year, in time to fly the demo flights.

It's the success of the Citation and Caravan lines that gives the company the resources to restart the piston production line. A Cessna official admitted recently that had the statute of repose legislation passed three or five years ago, the company might not have been in a financial position to commit funds to the piston line.

But why would a company so wrapped up in the turbine market want to divert its attention to piston production? Cessna management has worked hard over the last decade to turn around the company's image as just a light airplane manufacturer. Why look back now? The piston market is far more price sensitive, the liability is higher, the returns are far smaller, and the sales seemingly just as hard to make.

The answer is the future, says one Cessna official. Studies show that a CEO who has been associated with military or general aviation is 10 times more likely to buy a corporate aircraft than one whose only aviation experience involves boarding an airliner. "So we need to expose as many people to aviation as possible and single-engine aircraft are the way to do that," he explained.

Though general aviation has been in a decline for less than 15 years, Cessna has already seen a decrease in the number of business jet customers qualified to fly its airplanes. The number of CEOs and senior managers who are pilots has dropped steadily over the last decade, according to Cessna. And those who are pilots are less likely to have progressed beyond flying complex singles than were their counterparts in the 1970s. Twenty years ago, it was common for CEOs and senior managers to start out flying piston twins for business and eventually move up the ranks to turboprops and then jets, often continuing to fly the turbine aircraft themselves with the aid of a professional pilot. Many of those same customers are still buying Citations and other business jets, but Cessna finds few new customers that way today — and that has the company worried about the future.

The finances of building piston aircraft may not be as grim as many people thought, either. Even though the total number of piston aircraft delivered from all companies hasn't topped the 1,000 mark in years, Cessna officials are convinced that they can sell 2,000 a year and sustain that rate. If the Cessnas sell for an average of $150,000, the Skyhawks for less and the 182s and 206s for more, that's $300 million a year in revenue. "Not a bad chunk of business," noted one Cessna official.

Cessna's goal of 2,000 sales a year seems high and is perhaps too high. But remember, according to FAA records, some 46,700 used airplanes are bought each year. All Cessna must do is convince four percent of those people who will buy airplanes to buy new. A tough job, but maybe not impossible if Cessna is able to keep the price of new airplanes within about 25 percent of the price of late model used ones.

In the late 1970s, the price difference between a late model used Skyhawk and a new one was about 28 percent; 182s and 206s averaged a price difference of 22 to 23 percent. Cessna hasn't announced prices yet because it's still negotiating with vendors and analyzing its production costs, but company officials believe they must be able to match that ratio today in order to meet their sales goal. According to the Aircraft Bluebook- Price Digest, 1986 Skyhawks now sell for about $70,000. Apply 25 percent and you get $87,500. Late model Skylanes now cost about $112,000. A 25- percent increase ups it to $140,000. Meanwhile, 1986 206s sell for $156,000; a new one might then command $195,000. What's less certain is the amount of avionics that Cessna will be able to offer at those prices. Expect the 172s to be offered in both a VFR and an IFR configuration. The two larger airplanes will likely be available only with IFR equipment.

Don't expect the new airplanes to look much different than they did in 1986, at least externally. High certification costs will keep Cessna from altering the airplanes much, except cosmetically. Interiors will likely be more comfortable and durable and the avionics will be better. System redundancies, such as backup vacuum equipment, will likely be standard on most airplanes.

Cessna plans to build a new facility for single-engine production at one of five locations under consideration near Wichita. It will eventually need to hire about an additional 1,000 people in Wichita to build parts and subassemblies. Another 500 to 1,000 will be employed at the new site for final assembly and test flights.

The first Skyhawks are scheduled to be built early in the fourth quarter of 1996. The Skylanes will follow about five months later and the 206s about three months after that.

So it would seem that if Cessna puts its financial wherewithal and marketing prowess into high gear, in as little as two years we'll be able to enjoy the view of the fog-filled Appalachian valleys and the colorful autumn foliage from the left seat of a brand-new 172. That truly will be a special flying day.