Measure of Skill

Developing Weather Wisdom

In the past 11 months, this "Measure of Skill" series of articles has addressed a number of important airmanship skills — skills that, if mastered and applied, would make us all better, safer pilots. But there's more, much more, to safe flying than precise airwork. Learning how to deal with weather must certainly rank as one of the most important skills a pilot can learn. Unfortunately, these skills are difficult to teach. Sure, learning about aviation weather is easy enough, and ground school covers the basics fairly well. However, teaching in-flight, weather-related decision making continues as one of the biggest challenges facing flight instructors.

The numbers speak

The fatality rate for all weather-related accidents in 1996 was 68.2 percent. And more than half of these accidents (58.9 percent, to be exact) were caused by pilots initiating or continuing VFR flight into instrument meteorological conditions (IMC). This works out to be 43 out of 73 fatal weather-related accidents. Those are the numbers from 1996, according to National Transportation Safety Board statistics as presented in the AOPA Air Safety Foundation's 1997 Nall Report of accident trends and factors.

The VFR-into-IMC accident has always been the biggest safety problem for general aviation. You may botch any of the maneuvers or procedures we've discussed in this space for the past year, but statistically speaking, if you blunder into — or worse, choose to fly visually in — IMC, your chances of crashing and dying are much, much greater. That goes for instrument- as well as non-instrument-rated pilots.

Why do they do it?

Why do pilots take the risk? Good question. Theories vary. Some think a macho attitude or attitude of invulnerability is to blame. Others feel that some scud-running pilots become habituated and think that because they got through in the past, their luck will hold up. Another body of opinion holds that ignorance born of inexperience in flying in marginal VFR or IMC renders pilots unable to assess the weather around them, maintain adequate situational awareness, or preserve their wits enough to make sensible escape or avoidance decisions. Still others blame it on just plain stupidity.

Training to avoid

One good way to build awareness of deteriorating weather is to fly in it. Students can go through an entire private pilot curriculum and never fly near a front or any kind of significant weather. In view of the statistics, a good idea is to find an instructor rated and willing to take you up in marginal VFR (ceiling 1,000 to 3,000 feet, visibility three to five miles) or IFR (ceiling at or below 1,000 feet, visibility below three miles), just to see what it's like, and sample the kinds of navigation and communications exercises required on a legal flight. This is a great opportunity to develop an awareness of what a three-mile visibility really looks like. It's not much. This type of front-line learning would be good for student pilots as well as certificated pilots without instrument ratings.

The instructor's emphasis should be on holding altitude and teaching basic attitude instrument flying skills; 180-degree turns by reference to instruments; and situational awareness with regard to terrain, nearby airports, and diversions to suitable alternate airports.

This extra training may not be required by the regulations, and it will cost you, but the investment will be worth it. Fly enough cross-country trips and one day the weather won't turn out as forecast.

Looking and not seeing

It seems that pilots often don't take the time to simply look up and try to apply their weather-related ground school learning to the sky above them. Do those clouds portend an approaching front? What can I expect after frontal passage? Will the fog burn off? Is it VFR or IFR? Why is the wind blowing from its present direction? Do I really know what I'm looking at? Answers to questions like those come only with curiosity and constant observation — two things that many pilots don't cultivate when it comes to weather. Pilots need a self-generated core of learning in order to make sound weather decisions, both preflight and in flight. We're not talking here about information obtained from DUATS or flight service.

Deciphering and deducing

Learning how to get a good weather briefing is another big part of avoiding a VFR-into-IMC scenario. This goes beyond knowing a set of abbreviations and some weather jargon. For FSS briefings, it means obtaining a standard weather briefing, letting the briefer have his or her say, taking good notes, and asking any questions that could clear up doubts about the weather situation or fill in any information gaps the briefer may have overlooked. Using a weather briefing checklist can help here.

As for a DUATS briefing, you're pretty much on your own when it comes to digesting what can be a mountain of information. This means that your interpretive skills have to be sharper. There's no briefer to hold your hand, so you have to be knowledgeable and confident enough to pull off what amounts to a self-briefing.

Sigmets and airmets

Sigmets are hazardous weather warnings that apply to all aircraft, from jumbo jets to Cessna 150s. They're issued for severe icing, severe or extreme turbulence, dust storms, sand storms, and volcanic ash. Convective sigmets are issued for severe thunderstorms (those with surface winds of 50 knots or more, hail greater than three-quarter-inch in diameter, or tornadoes), embedded thunderstorms, lines of thunderstorms, or thunderstorms affecting 40 percent or more of an area of at least 3,000 square miles.

Airmets are aimed at light aircraft and VFR-only pilots, but, of course, all pilots should listen up when they're issued. Airmets are issued for moderate icing, moderate turbulence, sustained winds of 30 knots or more at the surface, mountain obscurement, and ceilings less than 1,000 feet and/or visibility less than three miles affecting more than 50 percent of an area at one time.

If your preflight or in-flight briefing mentions a sigmet or airmet along your proposed route of flight, then reconsider your flight. Staying on the ground certainly beats flying into steadily lowering cloud bases and deteriorating visibility.

Get an instrument rating

The single most powerful weapon against an inadvertent VFR-into-IMC encounter's turning into an accident is an instrument rating. Once you earn the rating, keep it current by regularly flying on instruments, in actual conditions, and by complying with the regulations covering instrument currency. Proficiency in flying on instruments makes you a more precise pilot in all weather conditions, enhances your mental discipline, lets you make full use of the air traffic control environment, and gives you a very wide range of options when dealing with a weather problem. Best of all, it makes you a safer pilot. The statistics prove that, and insurers reflect that proof in lower rates.

Instruments, and next year

Instrument flying skills are such valuable tools to safe flying that AOPA Pilot will run another 12-part series addressing pilot proficiency. This time, the emphasis will be on instrument flying skills. We'll be covering the essentials that you need to master in order to fly competently in the IFR environment. Whether you're instrument-rated or not, we think you'll find next year's series as educational as it is enjoyable.

Flight watch

The frequency for obtaining in-flight weather updates is 122.0 MHz. It's not meant for full-blown weather briefings, so don't go tying up the frequency with a request for a full route briefing. You can get those on other FSS frequencies, such as 122.2, 122.4, 122.5, 122.65, or other frequencies, such as remote communications outlets (RCOs) that are published on charts or in the Airport/Facility Directory.

Use flight watch for tactical weather information as you fly. Eavesdropping on other flightwatch transmissions may provide you with ample information to make calling unnecessary. However, when necessary, keep flight watch plugged into a communications radio and check in every hour or so, or whenever you have doubts about the weather ahead or suspect that a change is in the air. This goes a long way toward preventing unwanted weather surprises.

When calling in, be sure to state your position relative to a nearby VOR, airport, city, or other prominent feature. Since many FSSs monitor 122.0 announcing your location will allow the correct facility to answer your call.

You'll probably be asked for a pilot report (pirep). It's a small price to pay for timely weather information, and your information may help some other pilot. Pireps should at least include your type aircraft, altitude, basic weather conditions (cloud cover, rain, turbulence, ice, etc.), temperature, and approximate wind conditions.

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