We think it is a good time now, to review that forecast, bask in those predictions that were brilliant, avoid comment on those predictions that have not yet come true, and provide you with an amended forecast for the 21st century.
First let's take a look back at a few of our predictions from the 1990 forecast.
Student Pilots
We predicted a great future for student pilots. Their numbers would continue to increase throughout the 1990s because the job markets in the aviation field would continue to improve as airline pilots reached the mandatory retirement age of 60. The demand for corporate pilots would also grow.
FAA
Our forecast said the Federal Aviation Administration would continue to improve aviation safety, and would eventually design an enforcement program that makes sense. The FAA would keep hiring lawyers until their number equaled the number of aircraft registered in the United States. At that point, the FAA would assign one FAA lawyer to each U.S. registered aircraft (your N-number and your FAA lawyer's identification number would be the same). Congress would be impressed that the FAA had gone "man-to-man" with air safety rather than depending on a "zone defense."
Product Liability
Because of the litigation explosion in the United States and the high cost of proceeding with an aviation product liability case, the U.S. and London-based insurance carriers would promote new policies requiring arbitration of claims and/or use of rent-a-judges to determine legal liability in order to avoid the United States legal system. Legal fees charged to the London underwriters will remain at or below $500 per hour.
Flight Training Magazine
We predicted that the worldwide impact of Flight Training would spread to those areas of the world where "freedom of aviation" has been suppressed. Three million Berliners would send their youth into the skies over the city from an airfield that was once a sauerkraut patch on the east side of the "Wall."
Elvis
We predicted that Elvis Presley's Convair 880, the "Lisa Marie," and his Jetstar, "Hound Dog II," would depart from their museum home at Graceland and make a world tour, carrying Elvis artifacts and his mother's pink Cadillac, on a pilgrimage that would thrill millions of Elvis fans worldwide. According to our sources, Priscilla would be on board during the tour, and one of the pilots would bear a striking resemblance to "The King." Graceland would have "no comment."
What foresight! Now, here is our amended forecast for 1999 and beyond.
Y2K NOTAM
We predict a worldwide NOTAM that will ground all IFR traffic from 11:30 p.m. on December 31, 1999, until 9:00 a.m. on January 1, 2000, to avert a worldwide holding pattern for all aircraft. Finding a parking place for your aircraft will be difficult because there will not be enough ramp space in the United States to park all U.S. registered aircraft. Those without a parking spot when the music stops will be in trouble. The worldwide search for the illusive Y2K bug will continue through the year 3000.
Satellite Technology
With the advance of satellite technology and iridium phones, your GPS moving map and satellite phone will keep you on course and in communication at all times. Satellite spy technology will be spectacular. If you lose your golf ball you just call a special number on your iridium phone and NASA will immediately identify it for you, advise you of its location, and you play on. (Be sure to put your name on your golf ball.) Finally, a significant advance in improving your handicap.
NBAA
Membership will skyrocket as owners of fractional ownership interests acquire additional aircraft and join the National Business Aviation Association. By the year 2000, the NBAA convention will be so large that no convention center in the United States will be able to handle the exhibitor demand. NBAA will have to establish a lottery system to select exhibitors.
World Economy
General aviation will worry about a global economic crisis until the year 2002, when the stock market will again climb over 10,000. In the meantime, those aviation businesses that are lean and efficient will survive and prosper. The price of general aviation fuel will decline and then stabilize. Keep the faith and keep on flying.
EAA AirVenture Oshkosh
The first supersonic homebuilt aircraft will make its debut at EAA AirVenture Oshkosh. Shortly thereafter, Boeing will announce that it has decided to proceed with a U.S. supersonic business aircraft and offer it in a fractional ownership program. Its 365 owners will each be guaranteed one day's use and no deadhead costs.
Security
Because of worldwide security concerns and the abundance of Internet pages that enable people to track aircraft movement in flight, country designations will be removed from aircraft registration numbers. Aircraft operators will be given the option of using their Internet "call sign" for each individual flight, rather than referring to an FAA registration number.
FAA
The FAA will introduce its "Ticket Program," and it will flop because of the large number of pilots who make a bequest in their wills to give $5,000 to any FAA employee who goes an entire year without writing a ticket. The FAA will threaten to take enforcement action against the deceased pilots who make such bequests and seek to revoke posthumously their airman's certificate.
We hope this forecast helps you prepare for your trip into the 21st century. We close this year by extending to you our best wishes for safe skies in the last year before the 21st century and beyond.
