Continuing Ed: To Go, or Not to Go?

You?ve heard the old saw that describes flying as hours of boredom punctuated by moments of terror. If this were true, we?d all be couch-potato pilots who relish boredom or masochists who feed on terror. However, I do believe that flying can be described as hours of relatively easy activity ? meaning it requires average skills ? punctuated by moments of tough decision-making. One of those moments occurs when the weather is questionable. The decision to be made? Should I go, or should I stay and wait for conditions to improve?

Pilot qualifications and experience have a bearing on this scenario, but only to a degree. A METAR reporting a 2,000-foot ceiling and four miles visibility may not stop an experienced instrument-rated pilot from making a local VFR flight, as it probably would a new private pilot. But a 300-foot ceiling and pilot reports of light-to-moderate rime ice in the clouds would no doubt would give the IFR pilot pause to consider.

There?s a simple reason why weather decisions are so tough: Nothing about the weather is exact, or precisely predictable. A METAR is a snapshot of conditions at a specific time, but like a photograph, the information is, in a sense, subjective. In composing a photo the photographer is interpreting a scene or event. The same could be said of the human or automated observer that collects the meteorological information comprising a METAR.

If a METAR is like a photograph, a TAF is an impressionist painting ? an inexact depiction, based on information received and analyzed by the artist.

Artistry wasn?t on my mind when I was planning my departure from Houston to return to South Florida. Houston?s weather was lousy ? a solid carpet of gray, sliding low and fast from east to west across a cold sky. Radar showed solid cloud cover for about 450 miles to the east, with scattered precipitation. The worst of it was around Houston. Flight service was reporting Level II and III precipitation streaking up from the Gulf of Mexico to the east of Houston.

In the FBO?s planning room I monitored the DTN weather graphics and called flight service several times for updates. No question that if I launched, it would be into weather. I?d be in clouds and rain for at least three hours. That wasn?t a problem ? I was qualified, and so was the airplane, to handle instrument meteorological conditions.

My biggest concern was the reported Level III precip, forecast turbulence, and the winds aloft. At lower altitudes the wind was out of the south and gradually swapping to the southeast, so I?d be facing either a slight or a significant headwind. If the penalty was significant, I might have to make an early fuel stop. Because it was night, with low weather, I had to choose a fuel stop carefully to ensure the airport had an instrument approach, and the FBO was open for service. Tallahassee met the criteria.

Radar showed large breaks between the areas of precip in the Houston area. terminal approach control radar is pretty good at detecting precipitation (much better than the radar at en route centers), so I could count on some guidance from approach controllers if I needed help avoiding the heavier stuff.

I couldn?t do much about the turbulence. If I had a passenger, I might have put more weight on the turbulence issue, but when a briefer says light to moderate turbulence has been reported, I plan on being uncomfortable, but nothing more. It wasn?t a factor in my evaluation of expected conditions.

The final point item in my go/no-go decision-making was the forecast. What could I expect if I waited until the next day? According to flight service, things would only deteriorate. The low pressure system pumping the moisture up from the gulf was expected to intensify. Thunderstorms were in the next day?s forecast. That clinched it. Current and forecast conditions, at least for the next few hours, weren?t ideal, but they were well within the pilot?s and airplane?s capabilities. Thunderstorms aren?t. I decided to launch immediately.

As it turned out, I was in the clouds for some three hours, but it was a smooth ride. Precip occasionally streaked back from the windshield, but the showers were never more than light. And those forecast headwinds? I had a minimum 10-knot tailwind component the entire flight.

That trip was unusual in that, except for the clouds, I encountered significantly better conditions than what I expected. The next time might be different. I might encounter much worse conditions than reported or forecast.

That has to be factored into your go-no go decision. If the current or forecast weather will max out your or your airplane?s capabilities, there?s only one decision to make: Which movie to take in while you wait for the weather to improve. And it always does, eventually.