The cold front was now east of Galveston, and it extended northward into western Arkansas, but the area forecast for southeast Texas warned of low ceilings, rain, and thunderstorms until noon, though it was expected to improve greatly by 2 p.m.
South-central Texas, farther behind that front, was better, with the foul weather along the eastern sections ending by 1400Z (8 AM local), but the plain-English thunderstorm watch got his attention. In addition to hail, gusts to 80 mph, lightning, and thunderstorms, the watch said a "LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES CONTINUES MOVING EAST AT AROUND 35 KT ACROSS EASTERN TX."
The "cloud picture" from GOES East satellite, taken less than an hour earlier, didn't cheer him up, and neither did the convective SIGMET, which was valid until 6.55 a.m. The line of thunderstorms was right across his route and producing one-inch hail and possible wind gusts to 70 knots. It didn't surprise Dudley that there were AIRMETs, valid until 9 a.m., for turbulence and low-level wind shear, and for icing above 12,000 feet along his route.
The radar summaries from DUATS showed numerous areas of echoes and cells with thunderstorms and rain showers, some intense - even extreme. The one for Houston, for instance, described an area of echoes 45 nm wide with 2/10ths coverage, containing thunderstorms and extreme rain showers, from 330 degrees at 56 nm to 280 degrees at 103 nm. To visualize the text report, Dudley downloaded the Radar Summary chart. It told the story a lot better.
Dudley knew he wouldn't make his appointment, so he called to postpone it, saying he'd call later with his revised estimated time of arrival.
Digesting the weather information he'd read so far, Dudley thought the weather might really clear later in the day, and the 12- and 24-hour significant weather prognosis charts did agree that the weather was indeed expected to move out.
With time to kill, Dudley looked at the METARs for airports along his route to see if the weather was clearing. Galveston's 4:52 a.m. automated report indicated a broken ceiling of clouds at 2,600 feet and four miles visibility in light rain and mist. More important, the temperature and dewpoint were one degree apart, meaning the visibility could disappear quickly in a shroud of fog. Houston's METAR was similar. It reported eight miles visibility in light rain, but it had a broken ceiling at 2,300 feet and a 1.3-degree temperature-dewpoint spread.
Looking farther west, Dudley expected San Antonio's METAR to be a lot better. It was somewhat better, with signs of improving. San Antonio reported 10 miles visibility in light rain and a ceiling of broken clouds at 9,500 feet. There was a one degree temperature-dewpoint spread, but the barometric pressure was increasing rapidly, a sign of improvement perhaps.
Finally, his destination - Hondo - reported 10 miles visibility, with a few clouds at 7,500 feet and a broken ceiling at 9,500 feet. It suggested improvement, but the temperature-dewpoint spread was still one degree, and this set off little alarms in Dudley's mind. If the weather was improving to the west, the spreads should be increasing.
Reading the TAFs, Dudley hoped for a mid-morning take off, but the forecast for Scholes Field in Galveston dashed that hope. The weather would be getting worse between 8 a.m. and noon, with four miles visibility, thunderstorms, rain, mist, and a ceiling of broken clouds at 1,500 feet. But the forecast said things would start to improve after noon, with six miles visibility in light rain, scattered clouds at 2,500 feet, and a ceiling of broken clouds at 8,000 feet.
By 2 p.m., the weather would meet Dudley's requirements: more than six miles visibility, scattered clouds at 5,000 feet, and broken clouds at 12,000. The wind was supposed to be from 300 degrees true at 18 knots, gusting to 28, but one of Scholes Field's two 6000-foot runways, Runway 31, was aligned nicely with the wind.
Now that he had a possible departure window, Dudley made a rough mental calculation (precision would come later, if the flight was a go), figuring his Cessna 182's likely ground speed, based on how fast the front was expected to blow through. If he left Galveston at 2 p.m., he wouldn't be near San Antonio until between 4 and 5 p.m. Hondo didn't have a TAF, so Dudley would have to interpolate the San Antonio forecast.
At noon, the San Antonio TAF forecast scattered clouds at 25,000 feet and more than six miles visibility. The wind was 330 degrees true at 15 knots, gusting to 25. Not bad, Dudley thought. San Antonio's 5 p.m. prediction offered the same visibility and clouds, but friendlier winds - 330 degrees true at 12 knots. Transferring the wind to Hondo, and drawing on information from the Airport/Facility Directory, he guessed that he'd be landing on Runway 35 Left or Right.
Now, with a possible takeoff at 2 p.m., Dudley started planning his flight in more detail. The winds aloft report expired at noon, and he'd update his information before takeoff - and in-flight from Flight Watch - but the current information said he'd be fighting a 25-knot headwind. In computing his fuel, Dudley felt lucky that his 182 carried 80 gallons of gas.
Shortly after 11 a.m., Dudley downloaded the latest weather from DUATS, and the current METARs said the weather was following the forecast script. Galveston reported six miles visibility, an 8500-foot ceiling, and a 4.3-degree temperature-dewpoint spread. San Antonio reported gusty winds, but a clear sky and dry air. The temperature was 11.8?C and the dewpoint was a minus 3.2?C! Finally, Hondo reported a similar sky and temperatures, but the wind was better - 340 degrees at 19 knots.
Making his final decision, Dudley decided to go. The winds were a bit stiff, and visibility wasn't terrific on the east side of his route yet, but ceilings were going up, and things were drying out as he headed west toward the military training routes, military operations areas, and his destination. Based on all available information, Dudley expected a safe flight across Texas. Before he took off, he called to let his appointment know he was on his way.