"Please, dear God, don't let me [screw] up."
"To come this far…and [screw] up…."
—The imagined thoughts of Alan B. Shepard as he awaited his launch in the first manned space shot in the Mercury program, as written by Tom Wolfe in The Right Stuff.
All pilots have this same sort of ingrained fear of blowing it. A dread of making a mistake, even a minor one. Why? Because even small errors can multiply and turn a dodgy situation into a deadly one.
What can we do to prevent ourselves from screwing up and maybe causing an accident? Obtain quality training and stay current, for sure. But textbooks, decision trees, experienced flight instructors, and accident studies all agree on other elements necessary for safe flying: Make sure you have plenty of alternative plans of action as you plan and fly your trips, and minimize your risk by building adequate safety margins around the dangers we can face. In other words, always have an "out"—a bulletproof alternate plan of action.
How much of a margin is enough? What guidelines should you use for defining your "out"? That depends on your skill and experience level. More of both, and presumably the quality of your judgment—the third pillar of safe flying—becomes more acute, and your decision making more facile.
Let's look at some known risks that are major factors in many accidents, examine the dimensions of those risks, and come up with some ways to ensure you have an "out" for each.
Fuel
What's the major cause of engine stoppages? You got it—running out of fuel. This makes having plenty of fuel one of your best outs. But how much is enough? Regulations require that you plan your flights so as to land with 30 minutes' fuel reserve on day VFR flights and 45 minutes' worth of fuel on night VFR and flights under IFR. Those are the legal minimums, but personally it makes me nervous to land with that little fuel aboard.
Is this enough? That depends in large part on a risk factor that we'll discuss shortly—weather. It also depends on the length of your flight and the remoteness of the destination airport.
If the weather is severe-clear, then those 30- and 45-minute fuel reserves might give you enough of a margin for error. If a headwind becomes stronger than advertised, your fuel reserve cushion is diminished; but if the weather is good you can always make an intermediate stop, gas up, and continue the trip. Of course, this assumes you've been keeping close track of your fuel consumption, groundspeed, and the winds aloft.
What if the weather is chancy, and you face a long route without any nearby airports? You'd certainly want to take on an extra fuel reserve—one that would let you comfortably fly in unanticipated headwinds, permit you to circumnavigate thunderstorms or other cumulus buildups, or even let you make a 180-degree turn and return for a landing at the departure airport.
IFR flying presents an additional challenge. Complicated routings, en route changes to your clearance, weather avoidance, and holding can ruin your original flight plan and consume a lot more fuel than you originally planned to burn. That's just a fact of IFR flying. Will a 45-minute reserve be a comfortable enough cushion if you have to perform a missed approach at your destination? How far away is your named alternate airport? Fifty miles? One hundred miles? Two hundred miles? Don't laugh. Manufacturers and pilots of large jets have planning information that accounts for alternates that far away from intended destinations. That's because they realize that a combination of a suitable alternate airport and better weather may be very far away. You should realize this, too, and plan your fuel reserves conservatively. A one-hour fuel reserve is better for actual IFR trips; two hours' worth is even better. On the transatlantic ferry flights I've flown, I always landed with at least three hours of fuel still in my tanks (and sometimes five or more)—because alternate airports were so far away.
You get the idea: More fuel is better. Tankering a lot of fuel is a great out, and knowing you have a lot of gas is a good feeling when you're struggling with other challenges.
Weather
What outs can you draw upon when the weather is less than agreeable? Plenty.
First of all, if you're uncomfortable about the weather along your route, you could always cancel the flight and try again later.
Other outs include raising your own personal weather minimums to levels above VFR and IFR minimums. This way, you won't become hemmed in and forced into plans of action that involve flying at the most stressful limits of the regulations.
Are weather hazards forecast for your route? Then make sure you've got a trouble-free path away from convection, icing, or even clouds (if you're a noninstrument-rated pilot).
This is where lightning-detection and airborne weather radar can come in very handy. Without these tools you could literally fly blind into a storm cell. As for icing avoidance, stay away from altitudes where the outside air temperatures (OATs) are lower than 5 degrees Celsius, and know that the worst icing usually happens in the 0- to-minus-10-degree-Celsius range. A sure out for icing is to make sure that you have above-freezing temperatures at (and preferably well above) any minimum en route or minimum instrument approach altitudes. If you're noninstrument-rated, then stay clear of clouds—a strategy that incidentally also works very, very well for thunderstorm avoidance.
Having an instrument rating—and keeping it current—is the best out you can have for dealing with flight through areas of widespread cloudiness. For VFR-only pilots, even a little bit of training and exposure to instrument flying can make all the difference in the world should such a pilot find himself trapped on top of a cloud layer or being forced to lower and lower altitudes by descending cloud bases.
Knowing your weather outs begins with a thorough preflight weather briefing—that's a given. If the weather holds up as forecast, you'll have no surprises after reviewing enough text and graphical weather products and listening to a briefer's advice. It's when the weather takes an unexpected turn that the need to find some outs takes on a special urgency.
This is where flight watch (on 122.0 MHz) or flight-following services (also known as VFR traffic advisories) can give you extra margins of safety. While en route, it's good practice to check in with flight watch for weather updates and to hear the latest pireps affecting your route. (Flight watch is for updates only; for full in-flight briefings call flight service station frequencies on 122.2, 122.4, or other frequencies in the 122-MHz range as published in various flight-information products.)
Consider flight watch as an early warning system, and be especially attentive in the afternoon hours during thunderstorm season. By late afternoon, atmospheric heating and lifting reaches its maximum, and that's when most thunderstorms form and intensify.
By tuning in to VOR frequencies with HIWAS (hazardous in-flight weather advisory service), as well as ATIS, ASOS, and AWOS frequencies, you can simply listen to current conditions (on ATIS, ASOS, and AWOS) or hear recorded broadcasts of hazardous weather advisories (on HIWAS). Hint: If dew points are reaching into the high 60s or 70s, and temperatures are rising into the high 80s or 90s, you've got fair warning that there's enough moisture and instability to generate thunderstorms on short notice.
Flight-following services and traffic advisories are provided by air traffic control on a workload-permitting basis (their first responsibility is to accommodate pilots on IFR flight plans). With flight following, VFR pilots can receive many of the benefits of IFR flying. For example, controllers can warn you of impending bad weather and provide you with traffic information. Best of all, you're radar-identified, and a controller is right at hand should you need to ask for help around buildups, vectors to the nearest airport, or even to airfile an IFR flight plan—if the weather turns really sour and if you're instrument-rated, that is.
The problem with developing weather outs is that many of these skills involve in-flight tactical decisions. Decisions made on the fly, as it were. And these skills only come with experience. Which brings us to another strategy for developing your weather smarts: flying with pilots experienced in weather flying. You can learn a lot by watching others put good weather decisions in action.
Terrain
The risks of flying near high terrain include weather (turbulence, wind shear, up- and downdrafts, valley fogs, and sudden storms), density-altitude effects, and the sheer remoteness of mountainous environments.
Obviously, maintaining a safe altitude is essential. The maximum terrain elevation figures printed in the grids of sectional and world aeronautical charts (WACs) give you a good idea of how high the terrain is, and if you fly the minimum en route altitudes (MEAs) published for Victor airways on low-altitude en route charts, you'll be assured a 2,000-foot vertical separation from the rocks below.
Is this enough separation? Maybe, maybe not. Orographically generated turbulence can extend several thousands of feet above and hundreds of miles downwind of mountain ridges, and it can be severe. When you can see any telltale clouds, such as lenticulars or rotor clouds, then you can avoid some of the worst turbulence. Many times, though, the turbulence is of the clear-air variety and is invisible. That's why the more altitude, the better.
You say you'll be landing or taking off from an airport in mountainous country? Then take the time to understand how the local air currents behave as you climb away from or descend to runway level. Generally speaking, updrafts occur on the windward slopes of mountain ridges, and downdrafts prevail over the leeward slopes.
Also, don't forget to lean your fuel-air mixture for best power prior to a high-density-altitude takeoff. You do this by making a full-power runup, then leaning until propeller rpm reaches its highest value (fixed-pitch propeller airplanes) or EGT or fuel flow reaches the maximum-power value (constant-speed propeller-equipped airplanes).
An alternative for coping with density-altitude effects is to arrange your takeoffs to occur either early in the morning or late in the day, when temperatures are lowest. When landing in high-density-altitude situations, remember that you should use the same indicated airspeeds when in the pattern—but that your groundspeeds will be higher than you might be accustomed to, if you're a flatlander pilot. That's because the air is thinner at altitude, and your true airspeed is consequently higher. This means that the ground will seem to be whizzing by as you touch down. Resist the urge to slow down, lest you tempt a stall—which will come at roughly the same indicated airspeed regardless of altitude.
Night
Without the horizon and other visual references that we take for granted in daytime flying, vertigo and spatial disorientation can strike the unprepared pilot. The best antidotes here include instrument flight training, a heightened situational awareness, and avoiding flight in night instrument conditions. Flight under IFR—or with flight-following services—can also boost the safety factor of a night cross-country flight.
Visual illusions during landings are another potential nighttime problem. When on final for a runway with an upslope, you can be tricked into thinking you're too high on the glidepath. This can tempt you into flying too low or diving for the touchdown zone, setting you up on a glidepath that could terminate short of the runway. On the other hand, a runway that slopes away from an approaching airplane can create the illusion of being too low on the glidepath and lead to overshoots.
If you're flying to a runway that's long and wide, then another similar illusion can kick in: that of appearing to be closer and at a lower altitude than you really are; here the temptation is to fly a too-high approach and consequently land long. Conversely, when descending toward a narrow runway, the perception can be that the runway is farther away. This tempts you into flying a too-low approach.
To counter these illusions, it's good practice to use whatever glidepath cues are available. If there's a VASI or PAPI, fly its glidepath cues. If the runway's served by an ILS, then by all means fly the needles to assure a safe approach profile.
"Black-hole" approaches—those without any lights or other visual cues whatsoever—can also lead to vertigo during night takeoffs or landings. This is a special concern at airports located near large bodies of water or desolate areas.
What are your best outs for night flight? In cruise, fly high enough to keep well away from terrain or obstacles. To keep approach risks to a minimum, fly to larger airports served by adequate runway and approach path lighting, lighted approach path indicators, ILSs (if you're instrument-rated), and weather reporting services. Unless you're completely familiar with smaller airports that don't have those aids, don't take the risk of flying to them at night until you gain the necessary familiarity. Your best bet is to fly to these kinds of airports during daylight hours, when you can better familiarize yourself with their environments. That goes double if the airport is in mountainous terrain.
Keeping your wits
There's a big, big difference between knowing your outs and acting on them. Here's where experience counts—experience you've earned the hard way (on your own) or with the help of a flight instructor.
When things start falling apart, you have to be experienced and confident enough to be able to fly the airplane competently while you sort out a problem and deal with it. This, of course, implies an excellent grasp of basic flying techniques and the ability to do several things at once without becoming flustered or fixated. Lose your cool, and you'll never figure your way out of a challenging situation.
You need to operate from a place of calm to sort your way out of chaos. That calm comes from thinking things over well in advance of every flight and cultivating the reserve of knowledge necessary for good, quick judgment calls.
When you find that you're constantly asking yourself, "What if…" you're well on your way to advance planning your way out of a dangerous spot. If you can come up with a quick answer to that "What if" question, you're ready to make the best of a bad situation.
Links to additional information on contingency options can be found on AOPA Online ( www.aopa.org/pilot/links/links0008.shtml). E-mail the author at [email protected].
