Back in 1962 several executives involved in aviation and other industries predicted what the country might be like, technologically speaking, in the year 2000. They stuffed their prognostications into a millennium metal box and buried it at the front door of the FAA's Miami Air Route Traffic Control Center. This being the millennium year, the box recently was exhumed. How did they do on forecasting the future? Turns out they were both overly futuristic and myopic, depending on the prediction. They believed that airliners would be crossing the country today at three times the speed of sound, jets would be "silent," and we'd have a permanent military presence in space aboard orbiting bases. Yet, no one foresaw two advances that have fundamentally affected our communications and our access to information, and therefore our knowledge and power: the personal computer and the Internet.
AOPA Expo 2000 in Long Beach, California, provided a similar, fascinating past-and-present perspective on the future of aviation. Representing a dated view of the future was the Beech Starship on display among about 80 other aircraft at Long Beach/Daugherty Field. Meanwhile, Expo attendees got a contemporary look into the future at the Eclipse 500 mock-up at the Long Beach Convention Center.
When Beech, now Raytheon, unveiled the prototype Starship 15 years ago, it instantly became an icon of the future of aviation. From its forward-wing, pusher-prop, composite-construction technology to its TV-culture name, the Starship oozed high-tech chutzpah. But, in part because of a conservative FAA perspective on composite airframe structures, an overly long development and certification program resulted in an airplane that weighed one ton more than originally intended. Like a first-round draft pick running back who puts on too many pounds in the off-season, the extra heft in the Starship meant it could not live up to its performance promises. Yet, it was priced higher than some jets. The Starship vision of the future turned out to be short lived. After Beech completed the first production run of 52 Starships, the line was shut down.
They're all still flying, according to Raytheon, but today the Starship is more of a curio than a poster plane for the twenty-first century. That title has been eclipsed by the Eclipse 500, a five-seat (a sixth is optional) twin-engine mini-jet that exists only in mock-up form but is very much under development. FAA certification and first deliveries are expected in the summer of 2003. The Eclipse 500 fuselage mock-up at AOPA Expo was at the receiving end of a long line of convention-goers. Each waited their turn to touch, sit, and dream about a future that promises to be light, fast, high-flying, and friction stir welded.
Light, as in an empty weight of 2,700 pounds and a maximum takeoff weight of 4,700 pounds. Fast, as in a maximum cruise speed of 355 knots. High-flying, as in an operating altitude of 41,000 feet with a pressurized cabin altitude of 8,000 feet. And friction stir welded, as in…well, this takes a bit of explanation. Friction stir welding refers to a new British-developed machine process in which a special tool with a rotating pin is pressed against two pieces of metal to be joined. The rotating pin creates frictional heat that softens the metal—"plasticizes" it—allowing the two pieces to bond. Got it?
According to Eclipse, a friction stir welded joint is stronger, lighter, and more efficient than traditional riveted joints. I'm not sure what an "efficient" joint is, but to allay any doubts about the integrity of the process, Eclipse notes that it is used in building Boeing Delta rockets. It also has been approved for use on the space shuttle external fuel tanks, among other demanding applications.
We try to make sense of the future by comparing and contrasting it with our present circumstances, so here goes: The Eclipse 500 will be a single-pilot light twin, just like the airplane I now fly. My Piper Twin Comanche is about the same size dimensionally, also is made of metal, and has an empty weight just 208 pounds less than the Eclipse.
At this point the few modest comparisons give way to the many stark contrasts. I depend on thousands of old-fashioned rivets to keep the Twin Comanche in one piece through turbulence and hard landings, while Eclipse pilots will place their confidence in friction stir welds. The Twin Comanche's 160-horsepower Lycoming piston engines each weigh about 259 pounds. Each of the Williams International EJ22 turbofan engines on the Eclipse will weigh just 85 pounds, yet will produce an astounding 770 pounds of thrust. At its heaviest—3,600 pounds—the Twin Comanche has a power-to-weight ratio of about 1-to-11, while the ratio for the 4,700-pound Eclipse 500 will be about 1-to-3. Imagine the excitement when you push those thrust levers forward on takeoff. Last, and worst, I fly about 190 knots slower and 29,000 feet lower than will the Eclipse.
Comparing a Twin Comanche with an Eclipse 500 is not too far-fetched. The Twin Comanche became a stalwart multiengine trainer and personal twin because of its relatively low acquisition and operating cost and its excellent performance. At a price of $837,500 in June 2000 dollars, the Eclipse should achieve the same status in the turbine-powered world.
Rosy predictions of the future often tend to take on a darker cast when they collide with the intransigent realities of the present, as the Starship illustrates. Most new airplanes are based on proven, even dated, low-risk technology; the engine, avionics, and airframe technology in the Eclipse is state of the art, if not still emerging. (Can you say "friction stir welded"?) The low price and pocket-rocket performance of the Eclipse 500 also break new ground. For these reasons, the project has been greeted with equal measures of enthusiasm and skepticism.
The promise of the Eclipse 500 raises some interesting practical issues. Some early customers are nonpilots. How will they be trained for their Eclipse type rating? The old Piper experimented with training nonpilots who bought new Malibus by assigning each a personal flight instructor who moved to the customer's hometown, but it proved too expensive and cumbersome and the program withered.
Will owner-pilots whose only experience is flying slower, unpressurized, piston-powered airplanes at low altitudes blend in safely and harmoniously with the pros flying airliners and corporate jets in the upper flight levels?
Can air traffic control accommodate a relatively slow jet in increasingly crowded airspace, especially during climbs and descents in busy terminal areas?
The answers to these and other potentially thorny questions will emerge as the Eclipse program develops. For now, Eclipse is applying maximum thrust to delivering on its vision of the future, as articulated in its press releases: "Eclipse Aviation designs, certifies, and produces modern, affordable jet aircraft that will revolutionize the transportation market. The company is applying revolutionary propulsion, manufacturing, and electronics systems to produce aircraft which are significantly safer than those of today, cost less than a third of today's small jet aircraft, are easy to operate, and have the lowest cost of ownership ever achieved in an aircraft."
One thing's for certain. The high ground on high-tech chutzpah once held by the Starship today has a new occupant.
