Carburetor icing? Perhaps, but in the local climate at this time of year, not very likely.
The only other detail provided in the story proved to be telling. The accident occurred at the pilot's home airport at the conclusion of a cross-country flight of about 475 nautical miles. Hmmm...
I don't know the model Cherokee involved, so I can't be certain about the fuel capacity. Some models have 36 gallons of useable fuel, some 48, and some 50. But in checking the manufacturer's stated range for each model, it's clear that a flight of that length would be at the outer limits of almost any Cherokee model. Throw in less-than-ideal wind conditions, or tanks that weren't quite full on departure, and you could easily come up short of fuel to reach your destination.
In fact, that may be why this accident occurred. The airplane crashed short of the airport because the tanks were empty of fuel after such a long nonstop flight. If that's indeed the case, there's no excuse. During the last quarter of the trip alone, the pilot passed very close to at least eight airports that have fuel available.
If the crash resulted from fuel starvation, the pilot may have made a crucial error while planning the trip. For example, he may have departed with less fuel in the tanks than he thought. How? If the airplane had sat in the hot sun for several hours with the tanks full, the fuel could have expanded and overflowed through the tank vent line.
It's also possible that the tanks had not been completely topped off and the pilot failed to physically check the quantity before departing. He may have improperly leaned the mixture, resulting in an overly rich mixture and excessive fuel consumption. Or he may have planned the trip on the basis of range without accounting for fuel used in taxiing, runup, takeoff, the climb to cruise altitude, or headwinds.
The other possibility is that the planning was good, but the pilot's judgment was incredibly poor. How else to explain why someone would willfully choose to take a chance on stretching a flight to the limits of fuel endurance - and perhaps even beyond - in the belief that he could somehow beat the odds and make it home without running dry? Some pilots do indeed take that chance. According to the AOPA Air Safety Foundation's Nall Report, in 1997 there were 110 accidents caused by fuel exhaustion.
What were these pilots thinking as they pressed on through the day or night, surely aware on some level that they were risking the lives of everyone on board? Did they want to avoid paying a higher price for fuel at an en-route FBO than they could get at home base? Were they rushed for time, feeling that they couldn't afford to take the extra 45 minutes or hour that an en-route fuel stop typically adds to total trip time? Did they not want to admit to themselves or to their passengers that they had planned the trip poorly by failing to put enough fuel on board to make the trip and land with safe reserves? Whatever the reason, in hindsight it must look like what it is: stupid and irresponsible.
Smart, safe fuel management involves more than simply filling the tanks and watching the gauges, but not a whole lot more. Here are five points to keep in mind and help to ensure that you won't have to sweat making your destination with adequate fuel.
An accident that results from fuel starvation - running the tanks dry - is, in one respect, the worst kind of accident because it is the most preventable kind of accident. There is no excuse for running out of fuel, only an explanation: stupidity.