How Long Will It Last?

There's no doubt about it. The aviation industry is hot. Travelers are being forced to endure flight cancellations caused by pilot shortages. Jetport ramps seem to be crammed with gleaming business jets and turboprops thanks to a sizzling economy and innovative fractional aircraft ownership programs. Flight schools ranging from the largest aviation universities to neighborhood FBOs are clamoring for instructors. Airplane manufacturers are smiling all the way to the bank.

As an aviator, you have the potential to take advantage of this boom. No matter what your current trade or age, you may be well served by seriously evaluating the many opportunities in the world of flying today. For those who are considering life as a commercial pilot, the job gods are smiling on you. Hiring for cockpit positions has never been greater. Some 19,000 pilots are expected to find a seat in an airliner this year. The trend is just as positive in other flying tracks, including corporate, instruction, charter, and industrial.

It was not long ago that the industry was, frankly, in the dustbin. As recently as 1994, several airlines were facing bankruptcy, thousands of pilots were furloughed, corporate flight departments were liquidated, and unemployed CFIs were scratching for work everywhere. So, what happened? There are a number of factors contributing to the demand for pilots. One is the strong economy. With unemployment falling to record lows and productivity high, people and businesses have cash. Flush with dollars, Americans like to travel for both work and pleasure. Nearly 595 million passengers will board an airliner sometime in the year 2000.

Another component in the current hiring boom is the spike in pilot hiring that took place in the 1960s. Aviators returning from the Vietnam conflict to fly venerable DC-8s and Boeing 707s are hitting 60 years of age - the mandatory retirement age for airline pilots. Within the next 10 years, two out of three current major airline captains will retire. Their departures will leave many seats to be filled by younger, civilian-trained pilots.

The armed services also are feeling the pilot pinch. The military, which has been a traditional source of professional pilots, has seen an exodus of flight personnel. Despite bonuses of up to $110,000, military pilots are trading their flight suits for airline and corporate flyer uniforms. In addition, military downsizing will ultimately reduce the numbers of former military pilots available to fill civilian flying jobs. From World War II through the mid-1990s, approximately 80 percent of major airline new hires were trained by the military. This percentage has dropped to approximately 40 to 45 percent today, and the number continues to fall.

With corporate and airline fleets expanding to keep pace with the public's demand for air travel, the aviation industry has recognized that it needs to produce more pilots. "There is a pilot shortage. It's the magnitude of it that's in question," said Paul McDuffee, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University's vice president of aviation training and industry relations. Based on data from the Canaan Group and its own surveys, the university projects that in the next decade, the world's major airlines alone will grow by 3.9 percent and need 11,469 new pilots each year. The estimate does not include regional carriers or business aviation.

Nicholas Lacey, the FAA's director of flight standards service, spoke about the pilot shortage this past summer before a Senate committee. "Based on our discussions with industry experts, we understand that, while the major airlines are not having difficulty meeting their pilot hiring goals, there are signs that the regional airlines and those feeding the regionals are starting to see higher turnover and pilot applicants with declining prior experience," Lacey said.

Kit Darby, president of AIR Inc., which keeps a close watch on hiring figures, agrees. "The number of qualified candidates (for the regional airlines) has dwindled, dropping to 5,000 in 1998 from 15,000 in 1996 while the market for new pilots has been at record levels in recent years and shows no sign of slowing. We're at a point where we are seeing 1,000 to 2,000 jobs every month."

The pressing need for pilots means that the commuter airlines in particular are setting the lowest hiring minimums ever, putting jobs within reach of just about anyone who has a pilot certificate. Historically, a pilot applicant needed at least 1,500 hours of total time with 500 hours of multiengine experience to be considered for a job. Now, 1,000 hours total and 100 hours' multiengine is the norm. Additionally, says Darby, "Due to a good pilot market and the Americans with Disabilities Act, pilots today are younger, older, taller, and fatter than they used to be. Twenty-five percent wouldn't have been hired 10 to 15 years ago because they don't have perfect vision. This is simply the best time we've ever seen for hiring. It's almost a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity or something we refer to as a generational opportunity."

OK, you're convinced that the need is great. But the savvy observer of aviation knows that the business is cyclical. Ask any cockpit veteran and you will learn quickly that, given time, a furlough or layoff is a distinct possibility for anyone piloting an aircraft for compensation. How long will the good times endure? Will the bubble burst?

Let's look to the professional prognosticators for a glimpse of the future. Each year, the FAA convenes a spring conference that brings together the industry's best soothsayers to project the future. The gathering is critical to strategic planning. Airport and system improvements cannot happen overnight. Capacity from both a hardware and human perspective must be addressed from a forward-looking perspective. The highlights of the FAA's Aerospace Forecasts Fiscal Years 2000 to 2011 seem to validate this fact: Aviation and the people who work within it, especially pilots, will be in high demand for at least the next 10 years.

According to the report, 664.5 million people traveled on U.S. commercial airlines in 1999 and the number of air travelers is expected to increase to more than 1 billion in 2011. To accommodate this expansion, the FAA forecasts that the large commercial aircraft fleet will increase from 4,312 in 1999 to 6,400 aircraft in 2011, an annual increase of 3.3 percent.

"Paralleling the increase in domestic air traffic, the number of passengers on large U.S. and foreign flag carriers traveling to or from the United States is expected to increase to 137.6 million in 2000, a 4.2 percent increase over 1999," the report said. "This growth is expected to continue at a 5.1 percent rate each year, reaching 239.4 million in 2011. Over the 12-year forecast period, growth is expected to be the strongest in Latin American and Pacific markets, growing by 6.1 and 6 percent respectively. U.S. air carrier enplanements are forecast to increase to 55.6 million in 2000 and grow by 5.5 percent a year, reaching 101.7 million in 2011.

"Outpacing the large air carriers, regional commuter airline enplanements are forecast to increase to 78.2 million in 2000, an estimated 8.1 percent increase over 1999. Enplanements are expected to increase by 5.5 percent each year, reaching 137.5 million in 2011. In addition, the commuter passenger fleet is expected to increase from 2,237 aircraft last year to 3,186 aircraft in 2011, an annual increase of 3 percent. The regional jet fleet is expected to grow from 343 aircraft in 1999 to 1,546 in 2011, an annual increase of 13.4 percent."

Although the emphasis has been on air carrier transportation, do not for a moment think that general aviation, including business and corporate aviation, is taking a back seat. General aviation is a $17 billion industry generating more than $51 billion in economic activity. And general aviation aircraft fly more than 27 million hours annually - nearly twice the total number of airline flight hours - and carry more than 145 million passengers per year.

And the FAA report didn't forget about general aviation, either, saying, "General aviation in the United States is continuing to improve. The general aviation fleet is expected to increase from 206,500 in 1999 to 231,000 in 2011. The turboprop/turbojet fleet, the fastest growing segment, is forecast to increase 3.2 per-cent annually."

In its tenth annual World Military and Civil Aircraft Briefing, the Teal Group, an aviation and aerospace consulting company, predicted that more than 6,430 new business aircraft will be produced worldwide over the decade stretching from 2000 to 2009. "The worst years of our forecast period will be better than any year before 1999," said lead analyst Richard Aboulafia.

With all of this evidence, is there any doubt that aviation is the place to be for the foreseeable future? There is a lot of professional flying to be done in the next decade, and it will require a lot of professional pilots to fill the window seats in everything from corporate jets to the next generation of airliners.

And as the need for pilots grows, so does the need for support services like engineering, management, operations, construction, instruction, and more. So, if you've been wondering if you can make the leap to an aviation career - whether in the cockpit or on the ground - you can. And now is the time to do it. It just doesn't get much better than this!