We pilots, especially those who are in the early stages of launching a career, are afflicted with a wonderfully mysterious malady named flying. After all, it does take a mildly deranged individual to gladly pay the equivalent of two weeks' worth of groceries to fly a 20-year-old rental aircraft, scuffed and scarred, to some nearby home of the famous $100 hamburger.
To outsiders, even more curious is the aviator who invests enough money to buy a suburban condo in ratings and flight time just to win a commuter airline job paying less than a fast-food restaurant manager's position.
If you are one of those future flying professionals bound for the cockpit of an airliner or corporate jet, it is critical to your career success for you to take your head out of the sky every so often. You need to put your feet on the ground long enough to take a "pulse check" on the industry you are hoping will support you.
Case in point. Take a short quiz on important facts for anyone looking for an airborne career.
How many pilots will be hired into the major airline industry this year?
What is the average age and experience of a major airline new-hire?
How many regional pilots are there?
How many corporate aircraft are flying around the world?
In the next decade, which segment of the airline industry will produce the largest growth?
How many citizens will be demanding air travel in the foreseeable future?
What do the pros say about the impact of recent stock market woes on future hiring?
Stumped? When it comes to knowing important facts about the current and future status of the aviation industry, most of us are, indeed, "the weakest link." For anyone in the midst of or planning a flying career, conducting due diligence, as the business types call it, should be regular activity.
For a starting point, turn the clock back to 1993. In an uncannily accurate forecast, the FAA concluded in a landmark study entitled Pilot and Aviation Maintenance Technicians for the Twenty-First Century that there would be a pilot shortage through 2010. The study states, "In the long term, there will continue to be adequate numbers of pilots meeting minimum qualifications for their jobs in air transportation, but it is unlikely that enough of these pilots will have the proper skills and experience to provide industry with sufficient numbers of well-qualified personnel."
Remember that there are currently about 635,000 certificated pilots plus some 30,000 military pilots in the United States. So, there are lots of pilots out there. Thus, the phrase "pilot shortage" must be put into context.
The major airlines are not facing a shortage...yet. They have a pipeline full of well-qualified applicants. The majors will hire just 5,000 pilots this year, representing about 8 percent of all 63,000 major airline pilots. Major airline recruits coming from the civilian sector will be, on the average, 34 years old with 5,300 hours of flight time. Military pilots will average about 37 years of age and have slightly more than 3,000 hours when United, Delta, American, and others take them.
There is a shortage of pilots on the regional airline level, and that trend will continue if the FAA's prognosticators are correct. This year, the commuter airlines are expected to hire ap- proximately 5,300 new pilots. That number represents a substantial 73 percent of a total pilot population of 7,200 pilots. It can be presumed, after examining the arithmetic, that the major airlines will find a good portion of their 5,000 new hires this year from the ranks of the regionals.
The lesson thus far? Although the major airlines might be the ultimate goal of many pilots in the process of forging an airline career, the need and opportunity are more on the regional airline side of the industry.
This presumption is echoed by the FAA's 26th Annual Commercial Aviation Forecast Conference conducted in March. This forecast is released annually and provides a statistical prediction of aviation levels over the next 12 years. The report provides extensive historical and forecasting data for commercial air carriers, regional and commuter airlines, general aviation, the military, and cargo airlines.
The report states, "Outpacing the large air carriers, regional commuter airline enplanements are forecast to increase from 79.6 million in 2000 and grow 5.7 percent a year reaching 154.1 million in 2012. The most stunning growth rate is projected to occur in the regional jet fleet with an expected rise from 569 aircraft in 2000 to 2,190 aircraft in 2012, an annual increase of 11.9 percent."
By comparison, "the total number of domestic passengers on (large) U.S. air carriers is expected to increase from 604.1 million in 2000 and grow 3.6 percent per year to 927.4 million passengers in 2012. In addition, U.S. air carrier international enplanements are projected to increase from 54.6 million in 2000 to 108.4 million in 2012, a growth rate of 5.9 percent each year for continued total annual enplanement levels well over the 1 billion mark. Furthermore, the nation's fleet of large air carrier jets with 60 or more seats is expected to grow from 4,417 aircraft in 2000 to 6,313 aircraft in 2012, an annual increase of 3 percent."
So, what does all this mean? It does mean that demand for air travel, and thus pilots and support personnel, will continue to be robust. However, there is a distinct possibility that a future airline pilot may land in the seat of a regional jet and stay there. With RJ captain salaries approaching $100,000 at some companies (after eight to 10 years), that is not all bad.
Business aviation is a more elusive target since the FAA convenes its general aviation forecast conference only once every two years. However, the National Business Aviation Association (NBAA) has nothing but good news to report. Although unable to forecast into the future, the NBAA sees a healthy trend based on recent historical performance.
According to NBAA sources, this is the "most robust period in business aviation history." The popularity of business aircraft has increased as more companies have begun to realize the efficiency and productivity of this pow- erful business tool. The number of companies operating business aircraft in the United States has grown more than 40 percent in the past decade from 6,584 in 1991 to 9,317 in 2000.
During 2000, 12,973 operators flew 20,554 turbine-powered business aircraft worldwide. Nearly 75 percent of the operators were located in North America. The worldwide jet fleet has more than doubled since 1980. In fact, steady growth has occurred in each of the last 20 years. Since 1980, the worldwide turboprop fleet has grown, reaching 9,453 aircraft by the end of 2000.
Of course, the whole notion of fractional business jet ownership has become an industry unto itself. The "king of the hill" in this segment of business aviation is Executive Jet. This company alone manages 338 aircraft with 449 more aircraft on order. The NetJets operation will fly more than 250,000 flights to more than 90 countries this year.
Bottom line? If you are already pursuing the flying career track or beginning to think seriously about it, you've made a good choice! The future looks quite rosy.
But - there are a few factors to be wary of. To begin with, there is light to occasional moderate economic turbulence ahead. The topsy-turvy economy may play a significant role in the fate of future flight professionals.
Kit Darby, president of AIR Inc., an information resource for aspiring airline pilots, says: "There's been an undeniable slowdown in the economy, and you may be asking, how will this economic uncertainty affect airline hiring? Does it spell an end to the greatest hiring boom in history? Well, it's probably a little too early to give a definite answer, but the threat certainly exists."
Darby has been examining airline hiring trends for years. He adds, "One thing has become clear: It's the relationship that exists between the U.S. economy in general, airline profits specifically, and airline hiring activity. In other words, when the economy is strong, airlines make money; and when airlines make money, they hire pilots. Taking all this into consideration, it looks like last year may have been the peak for all three factors...but that doesn't mean the bottom is about to fall out of the barrel."
Darby's insight is reflected in recent financial numbers for the airline industry. News sources report that the nation's major airlines this spring experienced their biggest revenue declines in 25 years because of slumping corporate travel and higher labor and fuel costs.
The nation's four largest air carriers - American, United, Delta, and Northwest - all have forecast losses in the second quarter of the year. As an example, United, one of the hardest-hit of the group, has warned that second-quarter losses will probably exceed the $305 million it lost in the first quarter of 2001.
Despite the sobering profit news from the major airline sector, Darby remains upbeat about the industry's future. "Keep in mind that even if we're about to enter harder times, record numbers of pilots are scheduled to retire each year as they reach 60 at all the major airlines. In fact, the number of pilots retiring will increase every year through at least 2007, so there still has to be considerable hiring done just to keep up with attrition. Even in hard times, the outlook for new-hire pilots remains encouraging."
Further evidence of financial bumps ahead is the recent announcement that aircraft manufacturing giant Cessna has laid off 280 workers in response to slowing business. This is the first reduction in the single-engine workforce since 1986.
Marilyn Richwine, Cessna's vice president of corporate communications, said excess inventory necessitated the layoffs. The inventory, she said, "has built up due to a lack of sales...due to a softening economy."
If the economy continues to soften, there is really no telling how business aviation might be affected. There are enough corporate pilots out there who will probably vouch for one simple truism: When business softens dramatically, the company airplane is one of the first assets to go.
There is a saying that aviation is a cyclical business. Based on all of the data that has been presented, aviation is still the place to be, and we are far from a full-fledged downturn. This reality check gives you every reason to keep working toward your aviation career goals, while keeping your eyes wide open.
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