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Insights

Don't Give Up

You Can't Predict The Future
My 30 years in the airline business left me with one impression of that industry: It operates at either maximum takeoff thrust or maximum reverse thrust. Cruising along, maintaining the status quo, seldom occurs. However, for several years prior to the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, the industry did experience an unprecedented period of take-off thrust - lots of pilot hiring and advancement.

Dramatic, worldwide changes are now occurring, and most pilots - instructors and students - who dream of an airline career are deeply concerned about their futures. Ignore the multitude of rumors, and don't make assumptions. That's my advice. A flying career is just like rolling the dice in Las Vegas - it's impossible to predict what's next.

For years, airlines would hire for the summer months and furlough for the winter months. When coupled with unpredictable variations in the U.S. economy, these cycles became quite skewed.

When airline deregulation occurred, airline management lost a protective envelope that management in other industries never had. An excellent Wall Street Journal editorial of the day stated that airline management could no longer get away with making bad decisions and surviving. For the airlines to succeed in a deregulated environment, everyone involved had to be on the ball. The truth of that editorial is now obvious, because approximately 30 airlines either have failed or been taken over by other airlines. Many were small, but several big names like Pan American, Eastern, and Trans World are on the list.

One example that I'll never forget was the USAir takeover of Pacific Southwest and Piedmont airlines, two excellent short-haul carriers. USAir, which was very successful at the time, proceeded to decimate those operations rather than capitalize on their successful strategies.

A bean-counter mentality has taken over our country. Look at the airworthiness directives that occur on relatively new aircraft and engines. Common sense has been dumped in favor of the bottom line.

As a Boeing 737 captain, I hated to stand at the doorway and say goodbye to passengers, most of whom had pained expressions on their faces. We were flying long legs in an airplane that had narrow seats - 13 Chapsticks wide - and no leg room. How can a business that depends on customer loyalty treat its customers like that?

The major airlines that survive the current shuffle will be long-haul versions of the Greyhound Bus Company. The commuter carriers will probably expand and take over most of the short-haul flying in their regional jets.

In the past there was a big difference in pay between commuter pilots and those at major carriers. Pilot productivity concessions may occur, but I certainly hope that pay levels remain intact at the major carriers and improve for the commuter carriers. Contrary to public opinion, pilots who do the hard-core, all-weather flying earn every nickel they make. History repeats itself, and one cannot ignore what happened to America's maritime industry because of the many labor disputes of that era. The boardrooms and ports are still here, but the ships and crews are registered offshore. Competition is competition, and minimizing expenses is a prerequisite for any company's survival. That's a fact of life.

OK, here's the deal. Don't give up on your dreams, but do have a back-up plan if a flying job does not materialize. Life's too short to work at something for which you have no interest. If you have not declared a college major, consider a nonaviation career path. While a college degree is important, an aviation-related major is not a prerequisite for a career as a pilot.

Capitalize on every opportunity that will generate high-quality flight experience. Flight instructing is a good choice if you have the proper prerequisites.

When you start job hunting, do not begin with telephone calls or r�sum�s that you send via e-mail or snail mail. Dress properly and introduce yourself in person. First impressions mean everything. If you must send a r�sum� first, include one or two photographs.

Above all, be happy. Fly airplanes. Fly helicopters. Fly something.

Ralph Butcher, a retired United Airlines captain, is the chief flight instructor at a California flight school. He has been flying for 43 years and has more than 25,000 flight hours in fixed- and rotary-wing aircraft. Visit his Web site ( www.skyroamers.com ).

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