Although more than 600,000 people are authorized by the Federal Aviation Administration to pilot aircraft, the U.S. Bureau of Statistics estimates that just more than 110,000 pilots use their flying skills in an aviation career. Of all professional aviators, nearly 90,000 fly for the airlines. Thus, the airlines represent the "tail that wags the dog."
Kit Darby, president of AIR, Inc., an information resource for pilots in the hunt for airline jobs, was recently quoted here concerning the softening economy and its impact on aviation (see "Training Topics: Careers," September 2001 AOPA Flight Training). He states, "One thing has become clear. It's the relationship that exists between the U.S. economy in general, airline profits specifically, and airline hiring activity. In other words, when the economy is strong, airlines make money, and when airlines make money, they hire pilots."
Even before the events of September 11, expert analysts had predicted that the U.S. airline industry was headed for an anticipated loss of $2.3 billion in 2001, simply because of the state of the economy. The industry now is likely to lose billions more, potentially making 2001 the largest single-year loss ever. It's too early to judge the effect of a financial aid package passed by Congress in late September; it included $5 billion in direct grants to airlines and an additional $10 billion in federal loan guarantees. But the prospects for a quick recovery in 2002 are not rosy.
Turn the clock back to 1992 for an idea of how future hiring trends might develop. Many in the business remember that year as among the worst ever for the airline industry. In the face of a devastating recession, a summer fare war, and airlines competing against bankrupt rivals, carriers saw their profits vanish and losses increase. The industry lost almost $1.8 billion, second only to 1991's losses of $2.4 billion. Only 4,900 airline pilot jobs were produced in 1992. In 1993, about 3,000 pilots found jobs with air carriers.
At this writing, most major airlines just announced a 20-percent reduction in flights. Virtually every big-brand airline has announced furloughs.
Pilot hiring is truly dependent on the vitality of the giants. Since the mid-1990s, the flow of hiring upward has been robust. At its peak, some 20,000 pilots found airline jobs in a year. The boom was precipitated by the retirement of Vietnam-era pilots, a downsized military, and a growing economy.
As airlines discovered that their traditional source of flying personnel - the military - no longer produced enough cockpit material, those companies went to the next logical source - the regional airlines. The result was chaos for the commuters, which were forced to lower their hiring minimums and recruit flight instructors right out of their Seminoles and Duchesses. As a result, flight schools - including big-time aviation colleges and universities - began to scramble for primary-level instructors. They found it difficult to train pilots for their CFI certificate because very few staffers had the requisite two years' experience to train other CFIs!
That flow upward to the majors was diminishing before September 11. United Airlines ceased hiring in August 2001, stopping the process at about 200 new hires - compared to nearly 1,000 the previous year.
Is all doom and gloom? Not necessarily. The dynamic is somewhat different today than in 1992. The "wild card" is the regional jet.
The FAA has forecast that regional commuter airline enplanements are to increase from 79.6 million in 2000 and grow 5.7 percent a year, reaching 154.1 million in 2012. The most stunning growth rate is projected to occur in the regional jet fleet, which is expected to grow from 569 aircraft in 2000 to 2,190 aircraft in 2012 - an annual increase of 11.9 percent. Even if the growth rate is only 6 percent, that still means a need for new pilots.
"The regional jet phenomenon will continue to evolve and develop because it is based on passenger preference to fly on jets, and it does provide real advantages on some routes," according to analyst Edmund Greenslet, publisher of The Aviation Monitor. Regional airlines such as Chautauqua, SkyWest, Air Wisconsin, and Atlantic Coast Airlines say they have no plans to cancel orders for more than 250 regional jets scheduled for delivery over the next two years. RJ traffic has grown an average of 55 percent over the past three years and, until September 11, showed no sign of slowing. At midyear, RJ manufacturers had a backlog of more than 1,200 firm orders.
There may be an unexpected result from the September 11 disaster. According to the National Business Aviation Association, business aviation has been enjoying the most robust period in its history. If business executives cannot recapture confidence in commercial airline travel, they just may invest in a corporate fleet, purchase shares in a fractional jet ownership program, or routinely employ the services of air-taxi companies. The result? Additional pilot jobs.
Some time ago, several aviation professionals were asked about the advice they would give to future aviation pros. Their wisdom is so very valid now.
John King of King Schools said, "If I had some advice to give any person I cared for, I'd say, 'Get a college degree.' It is absolutely, fundamentally important." King adds, "The key to success in life is to develop a passion and pursue it thoroughly, but just that single passion is not adequate. You must have other skills to combine with it like skills in basic fundamental business: selling, accounting, and marketing. Take all these together and make them work for you."
Capt. Bill Traub, now retired, was the vice president of flight standards and training at United Airlines. He has said that United, when evaluating applicants, looks at the type of college courses they took. "Were they challenging? Were they worthwhile? If they were not aviation-related, were they courses that could serve the individual if he or she was eventually grounded?"
Are the doors of opportunity in aviation closing? Of course not. But it does appear that we are once again facing a period where being able to pilot a machine with wings is simply not enough. Going forward, competition for fewer cockpit seats will become more fierce. Those who succeed will arm themselves with advanced education and outstanding performance.
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