Don't Go There

It's a balmy June night. You changed your VFR flight plan to take that new Cessna 172S by a direct over-water route "because it's quicker." The sun's long since gone down, and it's dark. You're tired; distant lightning to the west indicates that the weather is deteriorating; and you think your engine is starting to make "funny" sounds, even though it isn't.

You're beyond gliding distance of the shoreline and you know it. But at least the thunderstorms are holding off...for now. It's almost time to turn off the anticollision lights. Their sharp beams are starting to distract you as they dance persistently off of the ragged clouds. Small rain droplets are misting the windshield. Boy, it's dark!

"Should've gotten a weather update before takeoff after that refueling stop," you think.

Maybe you shouldn't have put off finishing your instrument rating after all. But then you think you're pretty good VFR pilot. Safe, at least. You can hack it if the weather doesn't get any worse and the airplane holds up.

But what if it doesn't?

Too bad you didn't take a little more time for the preflight, but that's the way it goes, isn't it? Could bad fuel cause engine roughness? I wish I'd paid more attention to the fuel coming out of that truck at the last stop, you think to yourself.

Regardless of it all, you and your friends are on your way to the beach. Come hell or high water, nothing's going to stop you. Gotta get there tonight so you'll have a full weekend of fun. There's plenty of flotation gear for everybody if anything happens. You catch yourself saying, out loud, "It's still VFR. Boy, this is really gonna be a blast." Then you think, ...if we make it.

If, if, if!

Whoa. Let's just back off a minute and analyze what's happening here. We've got a VFR-only pilot flying at night over water out of gliding distance of land with an airplane full of good friends and high expectations of enjoying a weekend together. The weather is beginning to turn sour - not at all what The Weather Channel had said to expect.

He's justifiably nervous about the airplane because "there just wasn't time" to do the kind of preflight he wanted - what with getting the guys loaded up and doing everything else that needed to be done. On top of all that, he got away from work later than planned. And refueling at the last stop was little more than "Fill 'er up while we grab a quick bite."

How did this pilot ever get here to begin with? Although this scenario is fictitious, have you ever been somewhere like this in the course of your flying? Has your fate ever hung on a bunch of "ifs" like these? Have you ever known another pilot who allowed himself or herself to get into this kind of a situation?

Have you ever thought about how situations like this develop? They fill the pages of accident statistics books. And how about the ones who are lucky enough to make it? Their accounts never make it into the accident databases, do they?

If you ever feel the temptation to wander into an uncertain scenario like this, just say "no!" Don't go there. Make the decision now that, according to the old saw, "Anything worth doing is worth doing right."

Notice that I said "Make the decision now." Pilot decision making is what this article is all about - avoiding bad situations through good decisions.

So let's talk about how pilots make good decisions.

A Recipe For Decision-Making Success

Making good decisions involves understanding the decision-making process, equipping yourself with the tools necessary to make good decisions, understanding the forces that adversely affect cockpit decision-making, and firmly resolving to do it the right way on every flight.

Lots of things affect safety in an airplane, but the pilot by far is the most decisive factor. If flight planning is adequate, the pilot is well-trained, the equipment functions properly, the weather doesn't unduly interfere, and everything else goes more or less OK, most flights are enjoyably routine.

But what happens when an adverse or threatening in-flight change suddenly - or more insidiously, not so suddenly at all - occurs in the aircraft, the pilot, the flight environment, or the specific situation in which you find yourself? How do you handle it?

First of all, a pilot must recognize that a change has occurred, assess its impact, and decide whether some action is required because of the change. If some action is warranted, what is most appropriate? Should you do nothing, monitor the situation, modify your route or flight (or other plans), get on the ground immediately - or what?

Pilot decision-making literature provides a plan of action:

• Automatic response. Execute a previously conceived automatic response that will temporarily allow you to remain safe while you try to figure out what's happening. Examples of automatic responses are listed below.
• Problem resolving. Sort out the problem, analyze the situation, and decide on one or more courses of action that will allow you to live with the situation until you can get the airplane on the ground, fix it, adapt, or otherwise continue safe flight.
• Repeated reviewing. Continue to review the course of action you have selected to make sure that the problem is, in fact, getting fixed and/or safety is maintained until a safe landing can be accomplished. If your plan isn't working, change it. Reassess your situation and do something else that will get you where you need to be.

In some situations, time is critical and forethought is essential to a successful conclusion. Other situations, usually resulting from a string of poor decisions, develop more slowly - almost insidiously - but are just as hazardous. Whenever you recognize a bad situation, implement the three-step procedure above to make a good decision.

Regardless of the type of threat that faces you, action of some sort is probably needed. The trick is to decide what.

When circumstances require a decision, it's usually better to make it earlier than later. Where and when possible, that means decide on the ground what you'll do before you take off.

Automatic Response

With sufficient "ahead of time" headwork, you can respond almost automatically to most no-brainers - situations that require little if any complex decision-making skills. These are also usually found in the Emergency Procedures section of your pilot's operating handbook. When such "stock" problems are involved - assuming that you have studied the handbook and other writings on the subject and thought about them sufficiently ahead of time - your responses can be near-automatic.

In most emergency situations, follow the recommendations and checklists published in the POH. For both preflight ground and in-flight judgment training, however, I like to set up situations for my students that encourage automatic response.

It goes something like this, "I'll give you an emergency situation. If I only let you do one thing, what one thing would you do? What do you think is most important?" What I'm trying to encourage is that automatic response.

Seven "be-ready-ahead-of-time" situations for you to judge for yourself - and my personal recommended responses - are:

• In any emergency, fly the airplane. Maintain control of the airplane. Loss of control is the second leading cause of accidents in the United States. (The first, of course, is the pilot.) Given that aircraft control is always the number one pilot action, consider the following.
• Aborted takeoff - maintain directional control. It's almost intuitive to retard the throttle(s) and apply brakes, but what seems to cause most accidents on aborted takeoffs is that pilots fail to maintain directional control. They run off the side of the runway and hit an obstacle.
• Engine failure immediately after takeoff - get the nose down. On a typical after-takeoff engine failure profile, speed will have deteriorated below best-glide speed by the time you fully realize that an engine has failed. If you don't get the nose down immediately, you risk stalling, and then whatever procedures you think you should do from that point will be totally irrelevant. You're already stalled, and maybe spinning. While you're thinking about this scenario, take a look at the ends of the runways from which you regularly operate. If the big moment comes, exactly where are you going to put it down? Turning slightly to the right may provide a smooth clear path, while a left turn means nothing but ditches and power lines. Take a look at your home airport. You might be surprised at the differences a slight turn in one direction or another could make. The trick is to look ahead of time: before your next flight.
• Engine fire (flames) - mixture cutoff. Knee-jerk reactions to this one run the gamut from "change tanks" to "close the throttle" to "pull the fuel shutoff valve." Changing fuel tanks takes too long. It could be several seconds at best before this action will do any good. That's too long. Most aircraft manuals will agree that the fire must be deprived of fuel as quickly as possible. That's best achieved with the mixture in cutoff.
• Smoke and fumes or a burning electrical smell in the cockpit - turn off the master switch. Try this on a nice VFR day. See what happens. Notice that absolutely nothing critical stops working. The need for nav and comm radios, transponder, pitot heat, and some nice-to-have cockpit gadgets might give you pause in some airspace or instrument meteorological conditions. But flying the airplane, and turning off the master switch to deprive a potential or emerging electrical fire of current to fuel it, is the proper - and immediate - response. Once you're sure there is no fire, you can try to get the rest back in operation by gradually restoring power to one component at a time, being alert for any further smoke or fumes.
• Engine failure during cruise - don't give away an inch of altitude. The typical response to an engine failure in level cruising flight is for the nose to drop precipitously. It just happens. Before you know it, the airplane is 10 to 20 knots above best- glide speed and the nose is down. You're giving away altitude that you may need to solve the problem. Maintain altitude until you reach the published best-glide speed, then - and only then - lower the nose and trim the aircraft to maintain that speed while you select an emergency landing spot and maneuver into your landing pattern.
• Off-airport landing - touch down absolutely under control. Whether it's on smooth ground, in the tops of the trees, in a boulder field, or on the 30-degree slope of a mountainside because there's just no place else - just "paint it on." Make it the best landing you ever made, absolutely under control, and you'll probably walk away from it. Don't stall the airplane. Bring it down into the flare wings-level, right on airspeed, assume the standard landing attitude, and amaze yourself with how smoothly you can fly. Make it the best landing of your life.

Here's a problem for you: What will do the next time you are approaching the flare and an airplane, vehicle, or bull moose pulls out onto the runway in front of you? Or when you reach minimums on an instrument approach and see...nothing?

My response is predetermined: Max power, flaps to approach, positive rate of climb, gear up, wings level, ball centered. Then I'll sort out a radio call and see what else needs to be done. No question. No uncertainty. All my big "go-around" decisions are already made. This procedure is the automatic response that I have selected for situations when either a missed approach or go-around is required.

Problem Resolving

So you say, "I've got a problem." Once the initial shock of problem recognition has passed and a satisfactory automatic response is implemented, take what time you have to sort out the situation or changed condition in a deliberate analytical way. Decide how you can fix it, or live with it until you've picked out a place to land the airplane. That place might be your original destination, or it might not, depending on the nature and severity of the problem.

Make your decision based on as many factors as are available. Use good cockpit resource management and enlist outside sources if they can be helpful to you in restoring or maintaining safe flight. Safety is your primary consideration here. Don't let dangerous influences like "get-there-itis" and/or other pressures (such as talking on the radio) interfere with sound analysis and selection of the safest course of action you can manage.

Once you think you've got it sorted out, implement your decision. Follow the course you've chosen to remain safe or to get that way.

Repeated Reviewing

When you've done all that you can do, continue to constantly reevaluate the decision you've made to make sure it's getting you where you need to be. Don't confuse this step with second-guessing yourself. "Repeated reviewing" means continual review of your status to make sure you are progressing toward a satisfactory ending to your flight - and staying safe while you do.

The minute your chosen course of action stops solving the problem or isn't getting you closer to a safe resolution, reevaluate your plan - and change it, if necessary; get more help; or set up an emergency pattern to get on the ground ASAP.

You might want to take a look at DECIDE, the FAA's recommended decision-making formula from the new Airplane Flying Handbook, Instrument Flying Handbook, Aviation Instructor's Handbook, and the Rotorcraft Flying Handbook, all of which have been published in the last two years and contain sections on pilot decision making. It means:

• Detect that a change has occurred;
• Estimate the need for action or reaction to that change;
• Choose an outcome that will result in the continued success of the flight;
• Identify a course of action to achieve that successful outcome;
• Do what is necessary to implement your course of action; and
• Evaluate your course of action to ensure it is achieving the desired outcome.

Avoidance Is The Goal

The secret of success to begin with, of course, is to avoid ever putting yourself in potential no-win situations like the one our beach-bound flyer is approaching. Don't even go there. That's where good judgment and decision making come in.

That starts with good flight planning and a good preflight. That includes preflighting yourself, too. Use the FAA's I'M SAFE checklist. The acronym stands for illness, medication, stress, alcohol, fatigue, and eating. All of these can affect the adequacy and effectiveness of in-flight decision making.

If you're planning an IFR flight, draw your course lines on sectional charts (in addition to the IFR en route chart) so you can clearly see what kind of terrain you'll be overflying. If anything goes wrong, develop alternatives for each phase of flight ahead of time - before you even take off. That might require a complete replan. Get a good weather briefing and notams so that circumstances don't deal you unpleasant surprises for which you have no contingency plans.

Consult flight watch en route. Stay alert to changes. If you sense one, rely on your well-thought-out decision-making plan: automatic response, problem resolving, and repeated reviewing.

Good decisions are not born. They're made, quite often ahead of time. Have a predetermined plan in your pocket before your next big cockpit decision is required.

Wally Miller is president of an aviation training, consulting, and marketing firm in Monument, Colorado. He is a Gold Seal CFI who has been instructing for more than 20 years and flying for more than 40.