AOPA Contradicts FAA's GA Forecast Numbers, Sees Brighter Future
In a major address before industry leaders in April, AOPA President Phil Boyer disputed new FAA figures forecasting a decline in the number of student pilots. Boyer told participants that the erroneous forecast could drag down the entire GA industry just as it is struggling to recover from restrictions imposed after the September 11 terrorist attacks.
Speaking at the tenth FAA General Aviation Forecast Conference in Wichita on April 16, Boyer blamed the mistake on bad assumptions and system errors at the FAA.
"Student starts are the key," said Boyer. "Everything is driven by the number of students. That number is the leading indicator for everything from fuel sales to new and used aircraft sales.
"Business leaders make decisions based on the student number forecast," Boyer continued. "If the FAA is wrongly pessimistic about the future, it can negatively affect industry decisions. A wrong forecast will hinder, not help, GA's economic recovery."
The official FAA forecast, issued earlier this year, predicts that the number of new student pilots will decline through 2005 before beginning a slow turnaround. But, by correcting for the FAA's system errors and using accurate historical numbers, Boyer showed that the number of student pilots was much more likely to actually increase by some 16 to 20 percent over the next five years.
Boyer's address included a videotaped testimonial from Lee Peigh, office manager for Frederick Flight Center at AOPA's home airport in Frederick, Maryland. "If the FAA forecasters think student starts are going to be down, they ought to come out here," she said while standing in front of an active flight line. "We have 80 active students, 15 instructors, and we're adding more airplanes all the time to fill the demand. Business is booming."
"The FAA's forecast was made in good faith, but the numbers just didn't seem quite right to us," said Tim Pennington, AOPA manager of statistics and analytics. "After extensive review of the raw data, we determined that the total number of student certificates held has been understated for the last two years." He estimated that the underreporting accounted for some 13 percent of the FAA total.
Analysis by AOPA showed that the underreporting was due, in part, to an FAA system change implemented in late 1999. A switch to an electronic-based reporting system, plus a change in reporting responsibilities within FAA offices, generated a large number of "orphan" records, representing student pilots who didn't get counted. And the FAA apparently projected this inaccurate data into the future, forecasting a continuing decline in student pilot numbers.
But when AOPA statisticians included the orphan records, the number of students actually increased marginally in 2000 and 2001. Using accurate historical numbers, AOPA projected that there will be 98,000 student pilots in 2002 (instead of the FAA's forecast of 83,000). And by 2006, AOPA projected there will be 104,000 student pilots, versus the FAA's prediction of 83,250.
"Accurate projection of the number of student pilots is most important because that in turn drives everything else," Boyer said. "For the health of the general aviation industry, we must get these numbers right."
AOPA Saves Twin Owners $1,200 Each
AOPA saved owners of about 4,500 Beechcraft twins more than $1,200 each in March by persuading the FAA to issue a voluntary special airworthiness information bulletin (SAIB) in the place of an expensive and unneeded airworthiness directive (AD) on gust lock systems in Beechcraft Barons and Travel Airs.
Aircraft manufacturer Raytheon had asked for the mandatory AD in 1998 after a takeoff accident caused by pilot failure to remove the gust lock. Raytheon's $1,200-plus fix would have required drilling a hole through the top of the center-mounted control column for a new design gust lock.
But AOPA told the FAA that an AD wasn't an appropriate response to an accident caused by a pilot's failure to remove a flight control gust lock.
"The SAIB is a commonsense solution," according to Lance Nuckolls, AOPA director of regulatory and certification policy. "An AD wasn't appropriate and would have cost owners not only the direct expense of the AD, but also downtime on their airplanes."
Boyer to Celebrate Decade of Pilot Town Meetings
This year marks 10 years of face-to-face Pilot Town Meetings hosted by AOPA President Phil Boyer, reaching some 55,000 pilots nationwide. The first AOPA Pilot Town Meeting was held in September 1992 in the Dallas-Fort Worth area.
"Since the beginning, I've been reporting to members personally on critical aviation issues and what their association is doing," said Boyer. "But most of the value of these local meetings comes not when I'm talking, but when I'm listening to AOPA members' concerns."
Since 1992, Boyer has conducted close to 300 of the meetings, using fast-paced, vivid PowerPoint shows and video clips to reveal "insider" perspectives on important issues affecting GA pilots. AOPA Pilot Town Meetings are open to all pilots without charge.
Sessions are announced in AOPA ePilot, AOPA's weekly e-mail newsletter that is free to members, and in AOPA Pilot magazine. An up-to-date schedule for Pilot Town Meetings is available online ( www.aopa.org/prez/ptm.cfm).
Notices of Pilot Town Meetings are also posted on the AOPA Online home page (www.aopa.org) a few days before each meeting.
Unnecessary Chicago TFR Finally Canceled
One of the longest-lasting temporary flight restriction (TFR) areas in the country was finally canceled in early April, after months of AOPA lobbying. At the same time, a campaign to make pilots aware of the importance of public opinion was implemented.
The TFR over downtown Chicago was imposed shortly after the September 11 terrorist attacks, at the request of city officials. When most other TFRs throughout the country were lifted, Chicago city officials continued to pressure the FAA to leave the Chicago TFR in place, citing citizen fear of a "threat" from GA to downtown buildings.
In lifting the restrictions, FAA officials readily acknowledged that there is no credible aviation threat to Chicago buildings or landmarks.
At the same time, a joint FAA, AOPA, and industry education campaign in the Chicago area is urging pilots to "do the right thing" by keeping public perception of GA in mind.
The effort urges pilots to maintain a clean image for GA by avoiding flight over the downtown area, flying published VFR routes, observing regulations (such as minimum altitudes), and checking notams before each flight. The campaign's motto is, "Abuse the airspace, lose the airspace."
"This Chicago airspace issue reminds us that we need to be mindful of the public's perception of GA, and the ways that we can be good citizens," said AOPA President Phil Boyer.
FAA Extends AOPA Alcohol, Drug-Testing Exemption
A special exemption providing a way for AOPA members to volunteer for charity flights without setting up a detailed alcohol- and drug-testing program has been extended until June 2004. The exemption, free to AOPA members, requires only submission of basic information about the event after the flights; details are available online ( www.aopa.org/whatsnew/regulatory/020321grant.pdf).
The exemption was originally won by AOPA for its members in 2000 after the FAA decided that an alcohol- and drug-testing program would be required for any pilot volunteering to provide sightseeing flights to help airport groups and local charities raise money.
A full AOPA regulatory brief on the issue, including instructions on how to use the exemption, is available online ( www.aopa.org/whatsnew/regulatory/charity.html).
REGIONAL ACTION
AOPA Wants Fair Fees for Georgetown, Texas, Pilots
Fee increases for GA hangar rentals at Georgetown Municipal Airport in Texas should not be the only means to finance a new control tower, AOPA told city officials in March.
"AOPA opposes any fee increases that are not evenly applied to all airport tenants and users," said Bill Dunn, AOPA vice president of regional affairs.
Singled out in the city's first plan were increased fees for T-hangar tenants alone, although a later compromise plan would add more taxes on jet fuel to spread the financial burden. No additional fees were proposed for FBOs or other airport businesses that would also benefit from the new tower.
Dunn pointed city fathers to an FAA regulation that says, "Aeronautical fees may not unjustly discriminate against aeronautical users or user groups" unless the users agree, and said, "We do not believe that the aeronautical users have otherwise agreed to an uneven rate increase to offset construction costs."
MEMBERSHIP ACTION
Boyer Wins Cabot, Laurel Awards
AOPA President Phil Boyer has been named the winner of two prestigious aviation awards: the Aero Club of New England's Godfrey L. Cabot Award and Aviation Week & Space Technology (AWST) magazine's Aerospace Laurel.
The Cabot award, for lifetime achievement in general aviation, will be presented to Boyer on June 14 by the Aero Club of New England. "Phil Boyer has shown time and again that he can move political and regulatory mountains to keep the United States the world's greatest venue for the gift of flight," said Aero Club of New England President David G. Margolis. "Phil's actions after 9/11 topped off a lifetime of leadership in GA."
In announcing the Cabot award, Margolis also cited Boyer's roles in the passage of the GA Revitalization Act in 1994, the launch of the AOPA Project Pilot and the industry-wide Be A Pilot efforts, the formation of the AOPA Airport Support Network, the successful effort to preserve historic Meigs Field in Chicago, and the passage of legislation ensuring that aviation trust fund money would be spent on aviation.
The coveted AWST Aerospace Laurel was presented to Boyer in February. In making the award, magazine editors cited Boyer's "relentless testimony before congressional committees informing lawmakers of the value of GA to the U.S. economy and helping keep them from overreacting to the perceived 'threat' of small aircraft to the U.S. airspace system."
The Cabot award was established in 1952, and the Laurel in 1957.
AOPA TurboMedical® Serves 10,000-Plus in First 10 Months
More than 10,000 AOPA members have used AOPA's online TurboMedical® service to prepare for their medical certificate examinations since the Web-based tool debuted in August 2001.
The interactive service, hosted on a secure server for member confidentiality, operates in a step-by-step, question-and-answer mode (similar to computerized tax-return programs) and helps pilots avoid last-minute surprises and delays in the FAA medical certification process.
Questions on the AOPA TurboMedical® form duplicate those on the FAA's medical application form, and flag any pilot-supplied answers that might jeopardize a medical approval. For instance, if a pilot lists a medication, the program checks a list of drugs that may be accepted by the FAA.
Pilots may print out both a blank sample medical form and the TurboMedical® worksheet to correctly fill out the legal form given to them in the examiner's office. One pilot reported to AOPA Director of Medical Certification Gary Crump in January that "the receptionist at the AME's office said I completed the application quicker than anyone she'd ever seen!"
Crump said AOPA is continuing to update and improve the interactive program, including recent additions to the AOPA-compiled list of drugs that may be acceptable.
AOPA TurboMedical® is available free to AOPA members online ( www.aopa.org/members/medical/medform/).
AOPA Fly-In Procedures Available
Special arrival procedures are now available for the twelfth annual AOPA Fly-In and Open House to be held on June 1 from 8:30 a.m. to 5 p.m. at the association's headquarters on the Frederick (Maryland) Municipal Airport. Those special procedures will help keep arriving pilots away from P-40, the expanded prohibited area protecting Camp David just northwest of the Frederick airport.
"Because P-40 was expanded by notam, even current aeronautical charts don't show its true size," said AOPA Technical Services Manager Rob Hackman. "If ever there was a time to make sure you do proper preflight planning, this is it."
More than 700 aircraft are expected for the one-day event, which will feature food, fun, and at least 15 fast-paced aviation safety and education seminars.
A temporary FAA control tower will be in effect from 7 a.m. to 6 p.m.
Arrival procedures, including a special notice about avoiding the expanded P-40, and more information about the annual event are available online ( www.aopa.org/special/fly-in/).
AOPA AIRPORT SUPPORT NETWORK
Volunteer of the Month: Wayne Manning
The June AOPA ASN volunteer of the month has helped pilots at Auburn Municipal Airport in California avoid Draconian restrictions on airport hours of operation.
Wayne Manning and members of the Auburn Aviation Association responded immediately when residents of the Rock Creek Mobile Home Park, about a mile from Runway 25, started complaining about aircraft noise.
One couple in the park went so far as to ask the FAA to limit the airport's hours of operation; others complained to their congressman, who asked Auburn city officials to investigate the problem.
Manning assembled a team of volunteers from both the association and the mobile home park to monitor departing aircraft, noting how often they created excessive noise over the mobile home park.
To the surprise of park residents, only 10 of 152 departures monitored flew low enough over the residential area to create excessive noise. The remaining flights — 93.4 percent — were in compliance with the recommended procedures to minimize noise in the area.
Manning is continuing to work with the Auburn Aviation Association and airport management to educate pilots on the need for noise-abatement procedures. "Our success is due to the willingness of airport users and residents alike to work together for our mutual benefit," said Manning. "The secret to saving airports is getting everybody involved."
Manning has been the AOPA ASN volunteer for Auburn Municipal Airport since November 2001.
THE ISSUE OF NOISE
By Mark Lowdermilk, AOPA ASN program manager
Most airports, when first opened, are well outside cities and away from residential areas. But as cities grow around them, noise often becomes a critical issue.
Some communities have disclosure laws requiring that prospective homebuyers be informed of nearby airports. Unfortunately, many do not, and even in those that do, real estate agents depressingly often downplay an airport's proximity to make a sale.
All airports should have a land use policy, codified in local zoning regulations and enforced by local and state governments, to help stop noise problems before they start. Had Wayne Manning's airport in Auburn, California, had such a land use policy, the noise-sensitive mobile home park might not have been permitted in the first place (see " Volunteer of the Month: Wayne Manning" this page).
The AOPA ASN volunteer at your home airport will know if your airport has such a policy. If it doesn't, offer to help him or her get started on this critical project.
Not sure if your airport has an ASN volunteer? Go online ( www.aopa.org/asn/) and click on "Find Your Airport Volunteer." (If your airport has no ASN volunteer, you may nominate yourself at the same site.)
It's no exaggeration to say that the airport you save may be your own.
Public-use airports in the United States are closing at the rate of about one every two weeks. The AOPA Airport Support Network designates one volunteer per airport to watch for threats and encourage favorable public perception of general aviation. For more information on how you can help support your airport, visit AOPA online ( www.aopa.org/asn/ ).
Action in the States
Florida. St. Petersburg: A plan to turn Albert Whitted Airport into an "urban neighborhood" of condominiums, commercial development, and parks was opposed at a March city council meeting by AOPA ASN volunteer Jack Tunstill and a large delegation of airport supporters.
Indiana. Indianapolis: AOPA ASN volunteer James Graham is working to prevent incompatible land use around the newly opened Hendricks County-Gordon Graham Field. In March, Graham met with the director of the county's planning and zoning commission to suggest protective zoning for the airport.
Maryland. College Park: About 85 pilots and airport supporters celebrated the reopening after the terrorist attacks of College Park Airport with a barbecue in early March. The airport still operates under severe restrictions. AOPA ASN volunteer Lee Sommer helped arrange the celebration.
Michigan. Allegan: AOPA ASN volunteer Douglas Kuhl has been named to a new airport advisory committee for Padgham Field Airport. The group is working on improving hangar maintenance and plans for additional hangars.
Missouri. Ozark: AOPA ASN volunteer Jonathan Rimington will be orchestrating a publicity campaign for Air Park South Airport starting in the spring of 2003, when the field will be closed for about a year to allow construction of a new 5,000-foot runway.
North Carolina. Monroe: AOPA ASN volunteer Rich London, a first lieutenant in the Civil Air Patrol squadron based at Monroe Airport, expects his affiliation with the CAP to help in coordinating airport security issues.
Pennsylvania. Meadville: The value of Port Meadville Airport is being shown to local civic groups by AOPA ASN volunteer James Murray. He is also coordinating efforts by the Kiwanis Club of Meadville and the local EAA chapter for maintenance around runways and local aviation event promotion.
Washington. Washougal: Newly appointed Washington State Aviation Division Director John Sibold received an aerial tour of Grove Field from AOPA ASN volunteer James Metzger in March.
AOPA AIR SAFETY FOUNDATION
2001 ASF Nall Report Shows GA Safety Continues to Improve
The just-released 2001 AOPA Air Safety Foundation Nall Report revealed that general aviation safety continued to improve in 2000, even as leading causes of accidents remained largely the same.
This year's Nall Report listed GA accident rates for 2000 as just 5.96 total and 1.11 fatal accidents per 100,000 hours flown, easily bettering the respective 1999 rates of 6.49 and 1.16, making 2000 another record year for GA safety.
The full-color, 28-page ASF report identifies takeoff and landing accidents (predominately "fender benders") as the largest single category of GA accidents in 2000, while pinpointing the deadliest accidents as those resulting from pilots attempting to continue visual flight into instrument weather conditions or performing low-level maneuvering (buzzing).
ASF's Nall Report annually provides the first comprehensive analysis of GA accident patterns for the preceding year. It is named for former NTSB member, the late Joseph T. Nall, a GA pilot, flight instructor, and ground school operator.
"Any pilot seriously interested in lessening his or her chance of having an accident will find this report a page-turner," said Bruce Landsberg, ASF executive director.
Easy-to-read graphics that present "the numbers" in understandable terms are featured in the 2001 Nall Report, along with succinct summaries of higher-risk flight operation areas and suggestions on ways to minimize that risk.
Single copies are available free by writing: Nall Report, AOPA Air Safety Foundation, 421 Aviation Way, Frederick, Maryland 21701. The report is also available at no cost on the Web ( www.aopa.org/asf/publications/01nall.pdf).
'Surprise' Random Prizes Added to ASF Web Site
Valuable "pop up" prizes for safety-conscious pilots were added to the AOPA Air Safety Foundation Web site in late March.
The prizes, including high-quality ASF-logo shirts and aviation safety videos, are awarded randomly.
"You might happen to be the 100th, 200th, or 500th pilot to walk through the right door at the right time," explained ASF Executive Director Bruce Landsberg. "It's a win-win situation for everybody."
ASF SkySpotter pilots using the site to help track the dissemination of pilot reports are eligible for a special prize: a T-shirt emblazoned with the SkySpotter logo.
"Safety education isn't a one-shot deal," observed Landsberg. "We're hoping these pop-up prizes will encourage more pilots to explore the safety information and courses available on the ASF Web site."
ASF Seminar-In-A-Box Popularity Triples
Demand for ASF's Seminar-in-a-Box programs more than tripled in the first two months of 2002.Most requested was the two-part ASF program "Airspace Refresher," reflecting pilot concerns over complying with airspace restrictions imposed in the wake of last year's terrorist attacks.
"Pilots want to do the right thing and abide by airspace restrictions," declared ASF Executive Director Bruce Landsberg. "ASF programs such as 'Airspace Refresher' give them the tools to do so, and our Seminar-in-a-Box program helps."
A total of 11 ASF safety seminars are now available in the Seminar-in-a-Box format, and all meet the safety seminar requirements for the FAA Wings safety program. Kits for each program include programs on video, slides, or a CD, a presenter's guide, 50 appropriate safety pamphlets, door prizes for attendance, and evaluation forms. Although the programs themselves are free to pilot groups, each has a shipping and handling charge of $24.95.
The prepackaged programs were developed for use in smaller communities where traditional live ASF presentations may not be convenient for local pilots. Since the introduction of the ASF Seminar-in-a-Box program in 1995, more than 46,000 pilots have viewed the programs.
Seminar-in-a-Box programs may be ordered by calling the AOPA Air Safety Foundation at 800/638-3101, extension 2182, or on the ASF Web site ( www.aopa.org/asf/seminars/sib.html).
PROJECT PILOT UPDATE
AOPA members are sharing their love of flying through AOPA Project Pilot. Across the nation, AOPA Project Pilot mentors are helping student pilots realize the dream of learning to fly. From first flight to checkride, a mentor's personal interest helps ensure that the student pilot receives the best possible introduction to flying.
Success Story
My college roommate balanced flight training and academic studies and had fun doing it. While happy for him, I was more concerned with my motorcycle and my major. Nearly 20 years later, a girlfriend reintroduced me to flying and became my mentor. Before long I was as enamored with flying as I was with her. Having a mentor, in addition to a great flight instructor, was a big help. Even now, her words of encouragement and patience remain vivid in my memory. Today, I am mentoring a friend through his flight training, and I fly whenever and wherever I get the chance for both business and pleasure. As a resident of Southern California, personal flying has been a very convenient way for me to visit friends and family in the San Francisco Bay area. I am proud to be a 300-plus-hour instrument-rated pilot, and I am close to achieving my commercial certificate. — Michael Fischler, AOPA 1292281
We want to know what mentored student pilots have gone on to do since their introduction to flight. E-mail us at [email protected] with your success story and a photograph. You will inspire students and mentors alike.
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