Careers

Unfortunately, the latter statement has been proven time and again by well-intentioned airmen with dreams gilded by a love affair with flight. At the same time, the passion for getting airborne that we all share can obscure a clear vision of reality, causing us to move blindly ahead, pursuing goals that are extremely difficult if not impossible to achieve. Why? We fail to look far enough forward. We ignore the signs pointing to success or failure. The reason? We just want to fly!

Take, for instance, the failed Kiwi Airlines, put together by a group of displaced airline pilots. They had some notion that they could take on behemoth Delta on its home turf in Atlanta with greasy old Boeing 727s. In a feeble attempt to generate cash, new-hires were expected to ante up some $50,000 in cash.

Then, there was Colorado's Maverick Airlines, also formed by out-of-work airline pilots who somehow thought that they could succeed serving Rocky Mountain resorts with Dash-8s when a fairly financially well-heeled Continental Express could not pull that off.

The point? Anyone headed toward an airline career must periodically take a step back and make a full assessment. Obtain the facts. Review the data. Just like taking a 300-mile cross-country, there can be a need to make midcourse corrections periodically based on weather, fuel, or fatigue. The career journey is no different.

Here's a question. If you are currently enrolled in a professional flight program at an aviation college, university, or academy, what exactly do you know about the current pilot market? How many pilots were hired in 2002? If you are contemplating handing in a "Take this job and shove it!" letter to the boss and launching a flying career, do you know how many qualified airline pilots are on furlough, some of whom are looking for the job that you hope to earn?

See? Gotcha!

No, this is not going to be a message of doom and gloom, but a snapshot of reality. If you have not asked the tough questions, now is the time.

The folks at Aviation Information Resources, Inc., or simply AIR, Inc. ( www.jet-jobs.com ) have had their fingers on the pulse of the airline pilot marketplace ever since founder Kit Darby, a major-airline pilot himself, launched the enterprise more than a decade ago as a one-stop info shop for aspiring FAR Part 121 aviators. Each month, AIR, Inc. researchers contact carriers large and small to gather information. Additional worthwhile data is retrieved from members who are out there in the field getting interviewed, hired, and furloughed. Most of the figures and airline background presented here, which are merely informed estimates, have been gleaned from their reservoir of knowledge.

Bear in mind that the data is a snapshot in time - late fall of 2002, to be exact. As you read this, the airline world may have changed. Throw in a sustained stock-market rally or a war with Iraq, and the picture could have changed overnight.

Here are the answers to the preceding questions: 4,534 pilots found jobs as airline flying personnel in the first nine months of 2002. Compare that to 12,766 who were hired into air carrier cockpits for the same nine-month period in 2001. Sadly, some 7,080 pilots were on furlough at the end of September 2002.

Of the meager hiring, only 454 were fortunate to find a job with a major airline between January and September, and a dismal 13 pilots were able to lock down a major airline seat in all of September.

Airlines with names like Comair, Atlantic Coast, SkyWest, American Eagle, and Continental Express are termed national airlines these days. In this segment of the industry, 1,143 pilots earned a cockpit view in the first nine months of 2002. Did that sink in? That's an average of 127 per month. And how many are training right now across the land for that first job in a regional jet or Beech 1900D? Thousands!

No...it's not going to be doom and gloom, here. Honest!

For most of the fledgling professionals graduating those institutions of pilot training or slugging it out as a CFI in a Cessna Skyhawk or Piper Seminole hoping to get that call from a regional airline, the hiring on this level has certainly been sluggish when compared to 2001's tally of 4,026 being picked up over the same time span.

A continuing bright spot is the fractional phenomenon. Although not FAR Part 121 airlines, fractionals look and operate like a private airline. Companies like Bombardier Flexjet, CitationShares, Flight Options, and NetJets drafted 901 pilots between January and September 2002, which compared quite favorably with the 1,038 who secured jobs with these operators between January and September 2001.

And what about those regional airlines that a newly minted commercial pilot would like to work for? What's been going on? Who's hiring and who's not? What are the plans for the future? If those plans are robust, like adding a gaggle of regional jets to the fleet, chances are those air carriers are going to need pilots to fly them. Let's take a look at just some of the biggest and the best.

American Eagle: Grim is the word. More than 200 pilots have been furloughed. Eagle is actually reducing its RJ fleet size by 14 due to contract restrictions that limit the number of regional jets that can be operated by an airline subsidiary or partner.

Atlantic Coast Airlines: A trip to Washington-Dulles International Airport reveals such a huge presence, the airport should be renamed ACA International. It has more than 100 Canadair Regional Jets in the stable, as well as nearly 500 new pilots who joined the ranks in 2002. With another 25 jets planned for delivery starting in April, the hiring should continue into the new year.

Atlantic Southeast Airlines: Although showing a fairly anemic hiring pattern in the first part of 2002, ASA was said to be revving up again with a planned 54 pilots entering employment in October 2002 and another 20 or so in November. Rumor is that ASA is close to resuming its association with FlightSafety Academy, through which certain participants in the school training program will have priority status in ASA's hiring. Like other thriving regionals, the airline anticipates receiving a bunch of RJ700s - 54 to be exact - through 2004.

Comair: Despite a near-debilitating strike in its recent past, Comair must be doing something right. The projection is that 300 pilots will have been brought into the fold in 2002, and the same number is planned for 2003. The company has sent its last Brasilia to the graveyard and plans to add another 30 CRJs in 2003.

Continental Express: This company seems to be in a more difficult position than American Eagle. Nearly 400 pilots have been laid off with no solid timeframe for recall.

Great Lakes Aviation: Yes, the word is that GLA is hiring. The carrier is known for its tendency to give lower-time pilots their big break. Although GLA will continue to fly Beech 1900Ds and has no plans to add a regional jet to the fleet, it is a good place to gain Part 121 experience early in a career and rapidly. Applications are accepted online only ( www.greatlakesav.com ), and personal recommendations from pilots are highly regarded.

Horizon Air: The jury is still out. The company had fewer than 50 pilots on furlough through September with recalls planned for late 2002 or early 2003. The word is that the company "may" start hiring in the second quarter of the new year. Sixteen CRJ700s should find their way into the fleet by 2005.

Mesa Airlines: This is a bit of a wild card. The street talk is that Mesa is calling back its furloughed pilots and should be hiring. But, there appears to be some concern whether the airline's Pilot Development Program can fulfill the expectations of its enrollees. Further, Mesa is forming a new entity called Freedom Air. This maneuvering has apparently caused the Air Line Pilots Association executive board to oppose the move. Thus, there seems to be some churn going on over there. The airline, which operates a growing fleet of RJs, is expecting to add a few more.

Mesaba Airlines/Northwest Airlink: Not much is known other than that 23 pilots were laid off in September 2002. A rebound in significant hiring does not seem imminent.

SkyWest Airlines: One of the outstanding regional airlines in the business was hiring a modest 20 or so pilots monthly in the last quarter of 2002. SkyWest received a new CRJ900 in September. It is anticipated that hiring will continue at a somewhat subdued pace into 2003.

Trans States Airlines: At last check, TSA still had pilots on furlough. Nonetheless, the airline picked up 6 Embraer Regional Jets late in 2002 and is planning for two more in 2003.

So where's the good news?

First, there is hiring going on. However, the current state of affairs means that applicants must truly shine and be exceptional. The competition is going to be fierce for the foreseeable future. The outcome is that our airliners will be piloted by outstanding aviators, and that is good.

Second, as predicted in this column for the past two years, the major airlines will show far less growth than the regional carriers. With most major airlines at a hiring standstill for the next three to five years - possibly longer - ultimately earning $80,000 to $100,000 as a captain of a regional jet might be the final rung on the career ladder. Of course, there can be smaller steps upward with companies like Frontier, JetBlue, AirTran, and similar airlines.

Third: Chances are, most of those 7,000 furloughed pilots will not be competing with the newcomers for a seat at a regional. The pilot making a step back would be expected to resign a seniority number at the major. Most furloughed pilots will probably ride it out and hope to be reinstated.

Fourth, as competition heats up for fewer pilot seats, those who are not dedicated and easily discouraged will become bankers and salesmen, making way for individuals committed to succeed. It is easy to become frustrated in the current climate and give it up. Remember, however, that the airline game has always been a series of cycles: boom and bust. Well, just like investing in the stock market, one buys when the market is low and sells when high. The time to build time and credentials is right now, before the next hiring boom. And that hiring boom eventually will come.

Now you know. Are you up to the challenge?

Wayne Phillips is an airline transport pilot with a Boeing 737 type rating and is a designated pilot examiner in Colorado. Formerly a pilot for a regional airline, he is a speaker for the AOPA Air Safety Foundation conducting CFI refresher courses and safety seminars.