The three most frustrating words in aviation? How about "VFR not recommended."
Frustrating, because even though it's not recommended, VFR flight may in fact be possible. The flight service station specialist is obligated to issue the recommendation if the reported or forecast weather is worse than VFR minimums.
The specific criteria that triggers the "not recommended" statement is this: Current or forecast conditions at either the departure or destination airport - or anywhere en route - are or are forecast to be less than three miles visibility and a 1,000-foot ceiling; or thunderstorms, tornadoes, or other adverse conditions are reported or forecast.
Reported weather is what it is. We have to accept that weather observations, whether taken by a human or a machine, are accurate. It would take a fool to launch on a VFR flight with reported weather anywhere on the route that does not even qualify as marginal VFR. The exception is a long cross-country where reported marginal or below-VFR conditions are well along the route and are forecast to improve to good VFR before you get there.
In that case, a good understanding of the big-picture weather may lead to the decision to begin the flight, but with the condition that any uncertainty about the weather ahead is reason to enact Plan B, which is to land or return to base.
Weather observations are one thing; forecasts are another. It would be easy if the weather always turns out as forecast, but it doesn't. As we all learn soon enough in our piloting experience, the weather can be worse than forecast, but often it's better.
The uncertain accuracy of the weather forecast can lead to a gut-tightening go/no-go decision. The easy answer is to not go. After all, if the preflight briefing says there is even a chance of encountering weather, you can't go wrong from a safety standpoint by canceling. That soon becomes an overly cautious policy, however. If we canceled every time the briefer said "VFR not recommended" because of forecast weather, we'd be flying a lot less.
If the decision is made to initiate a "VFR not recommended" flight, it's essential to stay informed about the progress of the weather. Contact Flight Watch (122.0 mHz) or Flight Service (using one of the many discrete frequency published on aeronautical charts) early and often to get the latest terminal observations, en route weather, and satellite and radar updates. Be sure to ask for pilot reports, and return the favor by filing one yourself. If you need a refresher on the proper procedure for filing pilot reports, ask your CFI or review the AOPA Air Safety Foundation's online SkySpotter program.
Here in Florida, during much of the year we face the go/no-go decision almost daily. The reason is thunderstorms. A typical afternoon radar depiction of the state looks like a poorly maintained lawn, with great splotches of green splattered around the peninsula. Thunderstorms certainly can restrict our flying, but they do not prohibit it altogether.
Florida fliers learn to read the air-mass thunderstorms that are prevalent in the Deep South. Generally, they are far less severe than the supercells of the Midwest, scattered in nature and relatively brief in duration. We learn to time our flights to avoid the mid- to late-afternoon storm window, or else plot a route around them. One usually reliable escape route from coastal thunderstorms is to fly a few miles offshore. The afternoon onshore breeze helps to feed the storms, leaving the air over the water free and clear and navigable.
No such escape route was available last fall on a flight out West. The forecast called for afternoon storm activity in the mountains that could possibly affect our route. The forecast, however, lacked specifics on the location and intensity of the expected weather, so we were not persuaded to make wholesale changes in our route.
One factor that argued strongly in favor of pressing on as planned despite the forecast is that visibility out West usually is fabulous. It would be easy to spot and track developing storms from many miles away. We would have plenty of time to work on alternate plans if the forecast was on the money.
This time, it was. The buildups over the peaks and ridges began to tower, and we began to deviate. It soon became apparent that the storms could close in, so it was time to invoke Plan B. We descended in clear air between the developing storms and landed. We now had the time and tools needed to study the situation in more depth. We also got a fresh load of fuel, which is always a comfort.
The radar depiction and flight service briefer agreed that the weather was now behind us, and we departed on the next leg in good visual conditions.
Differences in terrain and storm behavior meant that we were unfamiliar with the weather we encountered out West compared with an afternoon flight in Florida. Considering all the factors, however, we felt confident enough to initiate the flight despite the forecast, and the experience confirmed the decision.
Fog is another common weather phenomenon in the moisture-laden air of South Florida. It's cited often in the early morning forecasts and, indeed, on the drive to the airport lacy wisps of visible moisture hang over cleared, flat fields. But local aviators soon learn that our brand of fog usually is a poor imitation of the thick, lingering blanket that affects Gulf Coast areas farther north and valley areas in hilly and mountainous terrain.
A pilot used to that brand of serious fog might mistakenly cancel a morning flight in our area if fog is in the forecast. I say "mistakenly" because the fog usually dissipates quickly under an intense morning sun. At most, we might linger over a second cup of coffee waiting for the field to go VFR. Elsewhere it can be mid-morning before the fog disappears and the airport beacon is extinguished.
Marginal VFR or IFR weather reported in an observation or forecast must be taken seriously, but it doesn't have to trigger an automatic cancellation of a hoped-for VFR flight. Learn to read the weather, draw on experience, and look at all the factors. Above all, have a Plan B and if necessary, turn to it early.
Mark Twombly is a writer and editor who has been flying for 35 years. He is co-owner of a Piper Twin Comanche and recently obtained his commercial multiengine rating.
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