2006 hiring forecadst
As this was being written, the news had just been announced that two more legacy carriers, the venerable Delta Air Lines and historic Northwest Airlines, had filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. Although it has been said before, United plans to exit bankruptcy: this time in 2006. We will see. US Airways will experience a metamorphosis--the name apparently will survive, but spunky America West will run the show. Of the old guard, only American and Continental continue to hang in there. In fact, Continental alone has sent pilot interview invitations and recruited more than 300 new flight deck personnel in 2005--with another 400 or so planned in 2006, according to some sources.
Who would have thought that the jobs so many coveted at the Big Seven would now seem so far out of reach? And even if bad financial fortune is reversed, there are still more than 9,000 pilots on furlough, waiting to return to the Airbus and Boeing fleets of the former giants.
There is a temptation to judge the health of the airline industry by the ailments of the top-of-the-mind air carriers. Step back for a moment and consider present-day reality and the prognosis for the years ahead. As has been stated right here many times before, commercial aviation is first and foremost a business, so how is business really?
Kit Darby's AIR Inc., an aviation careers consulting firm, continues to monitor the pulse of hiring. Darby's staff has some positive trends to report based on hiring taking place between January and August 2005.
During the first eight months of 2005, more than 7,000 aviators found jobs driving airliners. The hiring pace appears to be marching toward the 10,000 figure, a mark that has been elusive for the past four years at least.
Yes, the perennial good guys to job seekers have had the welcome mats out: Southwest picked up more than 350 pilots in 2005 through August; JetBlue hired more than 245 newbees; FedEx hired more than 300 with another 300 or so planned in 2006; and UPS drew in more that 200 with another 90 on tap for 2006. But if you're aiming toward a professional flying career, chances are that you are a long way from applying to the aforementioned. So, how are those entry-level airlines, the regionals, doing?
Air Wisconsin: With bases now at Atlanta, Denver, Dulles, and Chicago, this former all-United-Express carrier has experienced some modest hiring. Based on AIR, Inc's analysis, 99 pilots "made the cut" January through August at "Air Willie." Last summer, the company added 16 routes under the US Airways banner, so its once-exclusive United Express livery is making way for others.
American Eagle: 2004 was a banner year for this airline. More than 500 pilots found jobs up front. Things were a bit slower in 2005 with a reported 115 hired for the first eight months. Applications are being accepted online. Hiring minimums are now 1,000 hours total time/250 multiengine.
Atlantic Southeast: ASA was purchased by SkyWest this summer, and the effects are still to be discovered. The initial word is that SkyWest will operate ASA as a separate airline with its own operating certificate, management, and staff. Before the acquisition, ASA hired more than 200 new pilots in 2005, which had already surpassed 2004's total of 180.
Chautauqua: This company was on a nice hiring roll through August 2005 as it invited prospective pilots to the company's Indianapolis headquarters. Some 285 airmen survived the interview. The company, which now flies the Embraer 170 as well as the EMB-145, still takes resumes via e-mail.
Comair: All bets are off right now. True, Comair reported that some 270 pilots found work at the airline through the first eight months of 2005, but some new-hire classes may have been scrapped in the wake of Delta's bankruptcy. Caution is advised.
ExpressJet: The 2005 hiring champion has got to be ExpressJet. The company has experienced growth, and lots of mainline Continental pilots who got pushed back to Express during the post-September 11 slowdown were brought back across the company parking lot to "Big Continental." As a result, more than 500 pilots were hired in 2005. However, according to one captain, the doors to the interview room will begin to close fairly soon as the company's manpower needs are satisfied for the long term. Minimums are now 600/100.
Horizon Air: Although this high-quality carrier in the Northwest is a great place to establish a career, it has not done a lot for job seekers. As best as can be determined, the carrier hired just 38 pilots in all of 2004 and barely beat that number with 49 picked up through the summer of 2005. Minimum hiring stats: 1,000/200.
Independence Air: Remember Atlantic Coast Airlines? Many observers thought that the dissolution of the United Express relationship would spell bad times for the company as it attempted to go it alone. ACA had big plans to add Airbus 319s and perhaps become the next JetBlue. Maybe. But for now, IA is the only regional airline not hiring in 2005. As of August 2005, 691 pilots were on the bench waiting for a callback. Independence Air filed for Chapter 11 as this issue was going to press.
Mesaba Airlines: Reports are that Mesaba may be expanding its regional jet fleet with 15, and possibly 35, Canadair Regional Jet 200s. If that is the case, more pilots could be added to the roster than the 72 hired by mid-2005. That track could surpass 2004's hiring total of 81.
Mesa Airlines: This airline was hot in 2004 as it took on 612 new pilots. Hiring is way below that in 2005, with 196 reported new hires through August. However, Mesa projected another 200 hires in the closing months of 2005.
SkyWest: A huge favorite of the cockpit-bound because of its route structure, company culture, and management, SkyWest finally came out of hiding in 2004 and 2005 with impressive totals: 415 new pilot employees in 2004 and more than 330 through August 2005.
Trans States: Trans States hired 277 pilots in 2004, with just more than 112 new hires in the first eight months of 2005.
US Airways Express/Piedmont Airlines: Not much going on here. This enterprise lured 176 pilots into the fold in all of 2004 and fell far short of that number in January through August 2005, with only 55 new flight deck occupants.
The airline industry is not on life support despite the bankruptcies, cutbacks, and furloughs. True, the hiring picture was very encouraging in 2005. But, what about next year and the year after that? The great hockey player Gordy Howe, when asked why he was so successful, said simply, "I am not where the puck is. I am where it is going to be!"
Each year, the FAA gathers industry honchos and prognosticators for a huge planning pow-wow to determine "where the puck is going to be." Here is what they said just a few months ago:
"The demand for seats on commercial airplanes, which dipped severely in the wake of September 11, will make a complete return by the end of this year (2005).
"Without a question, regional and low-cost carriers are lifting a surprising heavy load. Their combined enplanements are up 40 percent since 2000. This gives them a 43-percent share of the market, up from a 30-percent share in 2000.
"An important yardstick, though, remains the number of passengers traveled. Last year (2004), that number was 688 million, up from 642 million the previous year (2003). Commercial aviation remains on track to exceed one billion passengers by 2015."
By all accounts, air travel will continue to grow, meaning more aircraft...and more crews. That's great news for those who are working their way through the FAA ratings today and looking for work tomorrow.
Disclaimer: The data presented are best estimates as provided by a number of reliable information outlets. The minutia does not matter. It is the big picture and trending that are important. What is the real message? If you are on your way to an airline career or thinking about it, stay on track--there are pilot jobs to be found.
Wayne Phillips is an airline transport pilot with a Boeing 737 type rating. He is a B-737 instructor and operates the Airline Training Orientation Program in association with Continental Airlines. He is an aviation safety consultant in Michigan and speaker for the AOPA Air Safety Foundation.
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