Preflight

Are instructors up to the challenge?

Several airline hiring experts share the opinion that the next pilot shortage is upon us. This may surprise you, too, even if you've been involved in--or simply watching--the flight-training industry since before the economic downturn of 2001, which was exacerbated by the terrorist attacks of September 11. When airline hiring bottomed, some 10,390 pilots were on furlough.

But the picture has changed considerably since then.

"It's difficult to comprehend, but there seems to be another pilot shortage developing," notes Wayne Phillips (see "Bridging the Gap," p. 24). Phillips, AOPA Flight Training's careers columnist, notes that the number of furloughed pilots at most carriers is rapidly approaching zero, if it hasn't already reached that point--and the tightening pilot supply has led some carriers to reduce their flight-time requirements. "If there was a glut of pilots waiting to occupy airliner cockpits, you can bet that hiring minimums would be back up to 2,000 hours of total time with 500 hours of multiengine experience," Phillips writes.

Kit Darby, president of Atlanta-based pilot career assistance firm AIR, Inc., agrees. "By definition, when an airline lowers its minimum requirements to get more pilots, there is a shortage of what they were looking for in the first place," he said. "This phenomenon is happening at some of the regional/national airlines now."

Darby's firm forecasts 8,500 new pilot jobs in 2007, up from 8,256 last year. And conversations I've had recently with people in the regional airline industry confirm that some carriers are experiencing pilot shortages now--while others realize that they're imminent.

What's driving this demand? There are a number of factors beyond strictly growth in the historically cyclical airline industry:

• The U.S. airline fleet is expected to grow by 4,570 aircraft--or 65 percent--over the next 20 years. Although numbers vary between airlines, and even between different aircraft types within an airline, an average of 12.5 pilots are required to keep one airliner operating on a normal schedule.
• Many legacy carriers are increasing their aircraft utilization and, as a result, need more pilots--even without adding new aircraft.
• There is increasing foreign demand for U.S. pilots, especially in Asia and the Pacific Rim, where huge growth is expected. The rest of the world recognizes America's leadership in aviation training, a result of the United States' strong general aviation infrastructure.
• The emerging Very Light Jet category could add significant numbers of pilot jobs if they enter commercial service in quantity as air taxis.
• Pending regulatory changes could increase the mandatory retirement age for U.S. airline pilots from age 60 to 65, allowing some pilots to extend their careers. But given the other trends, this is likely to be only a temporary speed bump in pilot hiring. Darby says the change would reduce total pilot demand by fewer than 3,800 pilots over a five-year period.

What does all this mean for the prospective career pilot who's just starting out? Opportunities that haven't existed before, at least in recent memory. While there's no guarantee that the airlines won't encounter another downturn--and, in fact, history suggests that like this imminent boom, arrival of the next bust is only a matter of time--it's certainly a good time to embark on a flying career.

To better support our readers who are seeking pilot careers, AOPA Flight Training is pleased to announce the launch of our expanded Career Pilot section, with four pages of new content specifically geared to the unique information needs of these students. Look for it beginning with the July issue.

This potential for increased pilot demand provides an opportunity to reflect on how well the flight training industry is serving student pilots--whether their intention is to fly for personal reasons or as a career (or both, for that matter--the two are not mutually exclusive).

Readers frequently send me e-mails and letters about their flight training, and I hear about the good, the bad, and the ugly. While I get a lot more letters complimenting readers' flight instructors than condemning them, some of these communications offer revealing--and occasionally troubling--insights.

Consider the woman from Michigan who took off on her first dual cross-country flight without the benefit of any ground training in advance from her instructor. En route they busted a temporary flight restriction. After that, none of the other local instructors would teach her--they didn't want to correct the bad instruction she'd received. Eventually she did find a new instructor, and she only needed the required three hours of training in preparation for the checkride when she had to change instructors again. The next instructor really put her through the ringer; eventually she discovered that he wasn't going to sign her off for the checkride until he retaught everything because the instructor didn't want to be responsible for instruction he hadn't provided.

Did you face one of those obstacles during your training? Many students will endure an instructor change, or perhaps one of the other situations this woman experienced--but not the trial she endured. She must have really wanted to learn to fly; a less-motivated student would have thrown in the towel.

Another letter I received told me about a pilot in Texas who successfully earned his private pilot certificate--and was surprised when, a month later, the designated pilot examiner who issued it showed up at his home to take it back! The flight instructor had made an error in the student's paperwork, which the examiner missed--but the FAA realized after the temporary certificate was issued that the pilot was missing a fraction of the required three hours of simulated instrument flight. We all make mistakes, but this one was compounded when the CFI took no action to help his customer resolve the situation.

Both letters recommend that students obtain an AOPA Project Pilot Mentor. The woman in Michigan--who did not have one--believed that with a Mentor she would have experienced fewer hurdles in her training. And it was the Texas student's Mentor who told him to contact AOPA, which intervened on his behalf with the FAA; although he had to fly another 30 minutes under the hood, he did keep his pilot certificate.

What are the lessons here?

If you're a student, by all means get a Mentor--Project Pilot is free, and Mentors provide a valuable additional training resource as well as motivation and encouragement; you can find one online.

And if you're a flight instructor building time for the airlines, treat your students as you would like to be treated. If an examiner tries to lift your student's new ticket and you don't know what to do, call AOPA's Pilot Information Center (800/USA-AOPA). Consider the fact that you might one day share an airline cockpit with each of your students, and conduct yourself accordingly.