Since You Asked

Pilots don't need to be meteorologists

Dear Rod:
I'm a private pilot who's anxious about his ability (or should I say, inability) to predict the weather. I've been flying for more than four years now and am gaining some skill at weather prediction, but I don't think I have anywhere near the skills I need to be safe in the air. Is this a common feeling with pilots of my experience? How long will it take for someone who flies about 100 hours a year (and owns his own airplane) to acquire these weather-predicting skills?
Sincerely,
Mike

Greetings Mike:
I think you are operating under a very big misconception that you need to have weather-predicting skills to be a safe pilot. Weather predictions--the result of work done by highly trained meteorologists--are part of every briefing you receive! The only skill required is the ability to listen.

If you want to spend the next several years getting as good at it as the people at the National Weather Service and flight service, have at it. But I don't think that's what you have in mind. Instead, I think you want to know how to be safe regarding the weather.

Meteorologists do a pretty good job of predicting the weather for us right now. Some 20 years ago, a study showed that in 75 percent of weather-related accidents, the weather at the time of the accident was the same (or better) than that forecast for the accident time period. In other words, on three out of four occasions, the weather shouldn't have surprised or overwhelmed the pilot (as it most likely did, since it resulted in an accident).

With the advances in science and computer technology of the past 20 years, the forecasting skills of our meteorologists have certainly improved. So, while it's important to learn about weather and improve your own weather predicting skills, your primary strategy for safe weather flying depends mostly on a different set of skills.

What skills? I'm speaking primarily of your ability to tell when a forecast is going bad. That's right. Weather-wise pilots start with the assumption that the forecast is going to be reasonably accurate. Then, they look for reasons to prove their assumption wrong.

They may depart on a flight knowing that, if the weather holds according to the forecast, they'll fly within the limits of their skills and knowledge. But they are always checking to see how the forecast compares with what's actually happening in the atmosphere. This process is made much easier with uplinked in-cockpit weather, but it is still possible with the use of the radio and ultimately confirmed with the use of the two indispensable E-Y-E-BALL units carried by nearly all pilots. If the weather is worse than forecast, then they alter their plans accordingly. If it's better than forecast, then the error is in their favor, and you won't hear any complaints.

So, while I always recommend that you learn as much as you can about weather, you don't need to be a meteorologist to be a safe pilot. Instead, you need to think like a scientist. Treat the forecast as a hypothesis, and constantly test its correctness. If things aren't shaping up as predicted, it's probably time to land and reconsider.

Departure procedure an obstacle

Dear Rod:
Flying out of my home airport, Erie Municipal in Erie, Colorado, there is an obstacle departure procedure (ODP) because of towers in close proximity to the airport. I've spoken to the tracon on the phone about the best procedure for departing under instrument meteorological conditions and they've informed me that they prefer I don't fly the ODP to Rocky Mountain Metropolitan Airport in Denver, since it would close down the airspace for them over Rocky Mountain Metropolitan. They recommend that I call them on my cell prior to takeoff for a clearance, but they always end up asking if I can provide my own obstacle clearance. No, not unless I fly the ODP. What do you recommend? Their clearance never gives a heading, only to contact Departure after reaching a specific altitude. I think I know the answer to this one, but just want to double check.
Thank you,
No Name Please

Greetings No Name:
If the departure were to be in IMC or at night, then I'd definitely use the ODP. This is a route that has been test flown and is known to be obstruction free. It's also the route that makes it less likely you'll end up metal plating the side of some nearby mountain or obstacle. Sure, it may tie up some other airspace, but that's because an IFR flight plan assures that you're separated from other airplanes and separation can mean delays. You're an IFR airplane and deserve to use that airspace if it serves you and your safety to do so.

If it were visual meteorological conditions and I could visually avoid obstacles, then I'd work with ATC by trying to avoid making use of the ODP. I might even offer to delay my departure for a few minutes if it gave the controller an operational advantage. Just to make sure that ATC knows what you're doing when you do want to use the ODP, place these words in the remarks section of your flight plan: "Using ODP at KEIK."

Takeoff tactics

Dear Rod:
For a heavier airplane close to its takeoff weight limit, is it better to take off in normal configuration, stay in ground effect, build up some airspeed, and then climb--or is it better to use a short-field takeoff configuration with 10 degrees of flaps?
Thank you,
Pamela

Greetings Pamela:
The most important rule regarding takeoff performance is to do what the POH says. It's pretty difficult to argue against the manufacturer's recommendations on how to configure their airplane for takeoff. After all, they built and tested it.

In general, for most smaller planes flaps aren't recommended for a normal takeoff unless there's an obstacle on departure (but for some aircraft, they are required on all takeoffs). The non-obstacle liftoff is often made normally (no accelerating in ground effect here) and climb is made at or near V_Y, the best rate of climb speed. Keep in mind that just after rotation, the airplane (unless it's vastly underpowered) will probably be at or near V_Y.

If there's a big pine tree at the end of the runway (an obstacle), then there's often some degree of flap extension recommended, accompanied by climb at V_X, the best angle of climb speed. Given the low indicated airspeed for V_X, you shouldn't have to accelerate in ground effect to reach this speed quickly.

Rod Machado is a flight instructor, author, educator, and speaker. A pilot since 1970 and a CFI since 1973, he has flown more than 8,000 hours and is part owner of a Cessna P210. Visit his Web site.