At the Paris Air Show on June 15, Bombardier Aerospace released its annual aircraft market forecast. The verdict? “Despite the current recession, the market fundamentals are strong in the long term,” said Mairead Lavery, Bombardier Aerospace vice president of strategy and business development. “As the world begins to emerge from this economic crisis, demand should gradually return and future prospects remain solid.”
At the same time, Lavery said, “we anticipate continued volatility in the aerospace market in the near term.”
In the 10-year period from 2009 to 2018, Bombardier predicts that business jet manufacturers will deliver a total of 11,500 aircraft, with revenues of approximately $256 billion for the industry as a whole. Those numbers exclude very light jets
Bombardier cited industry challenges in the form of high pre-owned aircraft inventories and negative public perceptions of business jets as part of the current problems. But the company said it “remains confident that there is strong potential for the business aircraft industry over the next 10 years.”
As for the commercial aircraft market, Bombardier forecasts a shift in demand to the upper end of the regional market, and to the lower end of the mainline market. In 60- to 99-seat aircraft, it predicted deliveries of 5,800 airplanes between 2009 and 2018. But in the 20- to 59-seat market, just 300 deliveries were projected. Airplanes with 100 to 149 seats should account for 6,300 deliveries in the next 10 years, Bombardier said.
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