Q: I am 38 years old and married to a teacher. I still have $30,000 of undergraduate loans to repay and I have secured financing to complete my pilot certificates. It is likely to cost about $60,000 before I am finished. I understand that it will take more than three years to get anywhere near my current salary (also about $60,000) as a pilot. I am (as is my wife) comfortable with adjusting my lifestyle to accommodate this. I'd like to fly a corporate jet or some sort of cargo transport. My concern is that with the way that airline seniority works, my age (I'll likely be 39 before finished), the economy's slow return to normalcy, and the rising concerns of oil prices, that I'm saddling myself with debt for a career that may not be able to sustain itself. Please advise. - Ian from New York
A. Ian, it sounds like you are thinking carefully about your potential decision rather than charging blindly forward. Too many would-be professional pilots are star-struck by the thought of flying for a living and don't give themselves a reality check and consider all of the pros and cons.
There are two critical considerations at this stage of your life. First is the state of the economy, including the skyrocketing cost of oil again, and its dramatic impact on the aviation industry. According to Sir Richard Branson, the founder of Virgin Airlines, the industry is set to suffer its worst year in history. "Yields are at an all-time low and business travel has collapsed, which suggests that there will be casualties in the next 12 months."
Regional carriers have suffered as weak travel demand has hurt their revenues. For the first quarter, for example, ExpressJet, which provides regional flights for Continental, reported a loss. SkyWest, which flies for Delta Air Lines and United, said its quarterly profit dropped 68 percent. Fifteen large airlines tracked by FltOps.com hired 2,301 pilots in 2006 and 2,443 in 2007. However, those numbers dropped to 1,299 in 2008. Through the first four months of 2009, those carriers have hired a total of 28.
Of course, business aviation has suffered as well with the collapse of such companies as General Motors and their flight departments. Bottom line, it's a tough world out there right now.
Louis Smith of FltOps.com has a good point. He says, "The timing is perfect for the student who can afford it. Normally, if he starts in bad times, he'll graduate in good times."
The key words are "who can afford it." Giving up a $60,000 annual salary and assuming another $60,000 in debt is a huge gamble given the state of affairs. It may be five years or more before you see that salary again in the flying game. That's not to say you shouldn't build up your time on your own at a reasonable, affordable pace. Keep flying and edging toward the magical 1,000 hours total time and 200 multiengine. Buy an airplane, join a flying club, join the Civil Air Patrol, become a CFI. Once there is light at the end of the tunnel, you can then jump into an academy environment and accelerate the training in a matter of months.
Wayne Phillips is an airline transport pilot with Boeing 737 and Falcon 20 type ratings. He is a B-737 instructor and operates the Airline Training Orientation Program at the Continental Airlines Pilot Training Center
