The old saying, “Two steps forward. One step back,” means that when forward momentum is finally achieved, something retards that progress, pushing it back—sometimes just a little, but sometimes a lot. It seems appropriate when attempting to describe the airline industry, particularly as a career path.
Just when it seemed as if the airlines were pulling themselves out of the darkness of the post-9/11 doldrums, fuel prices went sky high. Just when all the forecasts called for robust hiring in the coming months—caused by both the slow economic recovery and major airline pilots finally hitting retirement age of 65—a fairly large fly in the ointment popped in.
That “fly” is the forced retirement of hundreds of 50-seat regional jets.
Aspiring airline pilots rely upon regional airline hiring to pull them up to the next rung on the career ladder. When major airlines put out the welcome mat, the regional jet captains move into the first officer seat of a Boeing or Airbus; the RJ first officer moves to the RJ captain’s chair; and the CFI or charter pilot moves to the right seat of an Embraer or Canadair.
The regional airlines account for about 50 percent of all airline flying in the United States. They operate almost 13,000 flights daily and carry nearly one out of every four flying passengers. Some 75 percent of the commercial-service airports depend on regional airline service. But a recent trend shows that their major airline partners are causing companies to park their baby jets in droves. Why? Cost! Mike Boyd, one of the industry’s most ardent observers, says, “Airlines are finding these smaller jets just don’t make them any money.”
These 50-seaters have been providing service to many low-traffic destinations along unprofitable routes. As a result, it is expected that a sizeable number of smaller communities may lose commercial air service altogether. William Swelbar, a research engineer for MIT’s International Center for Air Transportation, says, “The highway is going to be the connection to the air network system.”
Even larger cities are being affected by the disappearance of the 50-seat regional jet. Cincinnati, once a beehive of activity, is a virtual ghost town with its large, quite spiffy commuter terminal now dark. Memphis is just a shadow of its former self when regional jets were scurrying around its ramps.
A decade ago, Comair was one of the premier regional airlines and young, entry-level airline pilots coveted a position with that carrier. Today, Comair is gone. It closed its doors September 29, 2012. Delta spokeswoman Kristin Bauer has said, “With the size of its fleet and higher unit costs of flying, Comair’s operations are no longer sustainable in this environment.”
Further, Delta expects that those smaller 50-seat RJs serving the company through other regional carriers will drop from nearly 350 to 125 or less in the next few years.
Pinnacle Airlines, flying for United, Delta, and US Airways, filed for bankruptcy last spring. Even American Eagle, a solid airline years ago that served as an entry point for hundreds of new airline pilots in its heyday, filed for bankruptcy protection in November 2011.
Mike Boyd speculates, “We think by 2016, virtually every 50-seat jet or smaller will be out of the system.”
As the 50-seat machines disappear, what becomes of their crews? Will they be prime candidates for flight-deck positions at other carriers because of their experience, thus pushing back the potential newbies? Or will some bail from the industry? Will the mothballed jets be replaced? At least at Delta, Kristin Bauer says, “They will be replaced by larger regional and full-size jetliners. It’s too soon to say which communities will retain more service and which ones will lose.” What will be the replacement ratio? It will most certainly not be “one EMB-190 added for one EMB-145 retired.”
What does this all mean for the crop of graduates from aviation colleges and universities, academies, and Part 61 flight schools? Certainly, there will be fewer seats available to fill, but that all can be mitigated by a mass exodus of RJ captains to the majors. However, don’t expect all RJ captains to jump ship to the majors. As one SkyWest captain said, “I have been with this company for more than 10 years. It is a great company. Why would I want to leave a $100,000-a-year job and start at the bottom of the heap at United for $40,000? The view out the window is the same.”
The regional carriers also are concerned about the new regulation requiring an ATP for all FAR Part 121 pilots. The worry is that the regulation, when it takes effect in August 2013, will result in fewer pilots to fly the CRJ, EMB, and Q-400 routes. This could mean that the new class of professional airmen might be able to bypass the regional caste system altogether and go directly to a major—or at least a larger jet carrier such as Allegiant, Frontier, or Spirit.
For the moment, it is quite impossible to predict with certainty what the airline hiring picture is going to look like in the months ahead. No doubt the reduction of the 50-seat regional airline fleet will have an impact on the traditional route to the flight deck. It will assuredly become a “buyer’s market” for anyone aiming for an airline flying career. The question is, at what cost and where?
Wayne Phillips, an airline transport pilot with Boeing 737 and Falcon 20 type ratings, is a B-737 instructor and operates the Airline Training Orientation Program.
Related Articles
