The prophets have said for quite some time that a pilot shortage is imminent. The post-September 11 industry recovery; an economy that is on the rebound; a public with an ever-increasing appetite for jet travel; fleet expansion; captains retiring at age 65; dwindling pilot starts; industry pay that drives talented young people to other professions: All of these factors have prompted the hiring pulse takers to throw out the warning flag (see “Careers: Fortune Teller,” May 2013 Flight Training). Still, there are those who say, “We have heard that pilot shortage song for 30 years.” Maybe they have a point. Is the pilot shortage so much myth?
Brant Harrison has emerged from the other side of the issue in a very impressive and scholarly analysis titled Pilot Demand Projections/Analysis for the Next Ten Years—Audries Aircraft Analysis 2013.
Harrison is a pilot for one of the premier regional airlines, but his skill set encompasses much more than driving a jet. He is a graduate of Brigham Young University with a bachelor’s degree in electrical engineering and minors in business and mathematics. He hosts a website that he says is “dedicated to providing the best possible unbiased aviation analysis to the aviation community. Why should a pilot invest tens of thousands, sometimes hundreds of thousands, of dollars in flight training, without having some idea what can be expected from his or her career?” His study of airline hiring patterns and trends is a passion.
Harrison set out to develop a forecasting model based upon fleet orders and aircraft retirements. He was able to tweak the data through his professional network to determine what the average staffing numbers are per aircraft type. He then takes the Boeing, Airbus, Embraer, and FAA fleet projections over the next 10 years to extrapolate pilot staffing requirements. He notes that pilot staffing figures do not come from the manufacturers, but from his own research.
The analysis not only provides big-picture data but also hiring and fleet growth by airline. Harrison tackles 12 major carriers by name and sums pilot demand created by growth, mandatory retirements, and normal retirements. The work also examines seniority progression.
Of special interest to future airline professionals is the extensive section on the regional airlines. Harrison takes on all of them, from Air Wisconsin right through Trans States.
What is the take-away from the research?
Harrison maintains that the mainline destination carriers are entering a new era of stability and growth. Not so much for the regionals. Regional airline instability looks to continue as carriers compete for a shrinking market. The regional airline models show, at best, fleet stagnation—and at worst, almost a 25-percent reduction over the next 10 years.
Major airline career movement looks as though it will continue at a slow to modest pace, but don’t expect a huge demand that will pillage the cockpits of the regional jets anytime soon. So, with slow movement to the big companies in the near future and the lackluster prognosis for regional airline expansion, the jump from flight school to regional jet may take longer, especially with the ATP rule taking effect in August. Once on board, upgrade periods at most regional airlines will likely remain between three and six years as an industry average. As Harrison warns, “This is important information for up-and-coming students who will need to budget for loan repayment.”
Throughout the remainder of this decade, hiring slots at major airlines probably will be very competitive. This is a result of a large supply of well-qualified regional pilots in the industry and a small but notable number of military, corporate, and cargo pilots vying for limited slots at the major carriers.
Perhaps the study’s bottom line is this: Demand for airline pilots looks to pick up significantly after 2019 from an average of 2,000 Part 121 pilots per year to about 3,500 to 4,000 pilots per year in the 2020s. That, of course, means a trickle down to the regional jets when those flight crews finally move to the majors, thus opening seat vacancies for the new professional pilot. But, these numbers are a far cry from the staggering annual pilot hiring of 10,000 or more in the heyday.
Purchasing the full 160-page study via Harrison’s website may be a wise investment in due diligence. He even provides an option to cherry-pick portions of the study (such as the regional airlines section) at minimal cost. Harrison does provide an overview of his findings, plus other useful industry and career tips, at no charge on his website. He also updates the data to stay in sync with a fluid industry.
Harrison’s work is thoughtful and provocative, which seems to contradict recent literature and thinking. Notably absent, though, is any discussion of the second-tier carriers such as Kalitta, Frontier, Allegiant, Polar, Miami Air, Hawaiian, and Sun Country—or the impact of foreign airlines on the hiring situation. Add to that the corporate and air charter giants, which also have personnel needs.
From a simplistic approach, the pool of eligible, emerging pilot professionals is only so deep with only so many participants, and the number of airmen who are jumping into that pool is declining. If there is any eyebrow to be raised at Harrison’s notions, it is simply that many pilot employers well beyond those dozen or so evaluated in his work dip into that finite pilot pool for talent. It may be a quantum leap to conclude that, since the major carriers have no shortage of pilot applicants, there is no pilot shortage.
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