Facebook was aglow with friends telling friends how the pilot shortage is a crock. Said one, “I don’t understand the motivation behind this. I have been hearing the same story since the 1990s.” Another claimed, “I’ve heard the same thing for about 40 years.” They were all responding to a Bloomberg article, “Pilot Shortage Is An Airline Fairy Tale,” written by Matthew C. Klein.
What is an aspiring airline pilot to believe? Klein wrote, “According to the Air Line Pilots Association, there are thousands of U.S. pilots who are either furloughed or unemployed, while thousands more have switched to foreign carriers that offer higher pay. According to the FAA, both the number of active certificates for airline pilots and the number of U.S. airline passengers have been little changed over the past five years—not exactly what you would expect if there were a real shortage.”
Oh, really? The FAA in a 2013 report projects passenger demand will grow by 2.2 percent per year through 2033, requiring about 70,000 new pilots with an ATP certificate. Further, according to AOPA’s analysis, there were 144,702 ATPs in 2001. But recently released data from the Government Accountability Office states that there are only 109,465 “active” ATPs with a first class medical. Klein is actually spot on when he says, “Although many commercial airline pilots get their experience and training in the military, those who don’t have to pay as much as $100,000 to get the required education and flying time—an investment that can’t be justified when the wages for the new workers is so low. If airlines want to replace their aging corps of experienced pilots and continue serving second- and third-tier cities, they are going to need to boost pay and raise ticket prices.” Now the irony that adds to the confusion: In the same publication within days of Klein’s article comes Justin Bachman’s article, “Yes, there’s a pilot shortage: salaries start at $21,000.” Bachman takes a real-life snapshot as to what is happening right now.
“A pilot shortage has forced smaller airlines to cancel flights and ground jets, a side effect of federal regulations that have dramatically increased the minimum number of flight hours required for new pilots. The labor shortage and service cuts have hit first and most sharply at the regional airlines that ferry passengers from small markets on behalf of bigger carriers. One of the largest regionals, Republic Airways Holdings, plans to stop flying 27 of its 41 Embraer 50-seat jets because of the pilot shortage. That decision will lower income as much as $22 million this year.” “Flight cuts caused by the pilot shortage have rippled from the tiniest of airlines to major hubs. Wyoming-based Great Lakes Airlines ended service to a half-dozen small towns on February 1 after seeing its pilot ranks slashed from more than 300 to fewer than 100. United, meanwhile, explained the recent plan to dismantle its Cleveland hub in part by pointing to the inability of regional carriers to staff all of its flights there.”
Bachman hits home with this: “And the stingy pay, in turn, exacerbates the pilot shortage. Not only does it make jobs less appealing, but the small salaries also combine with more onerous federal training rules to put many pilots deep in debt.”
The pundits who say that there is no pilot shortage are partially correct. There are some 600,000 pilots who fly airplanes. These pundits think that, if the industry changes its ways and all domestic carriers—large and small—treat their pilots like Emirates, then there will be no shortage. Of course. Sadly, that is not the state of affairs in the U.S. airline industry. In order to pay brand-new first officers at the regionals a nice starting wage of $40,000 per year, imagine the cost of tickets and the hit to the airlines’ profit margins. Will the flying public and airline stockholders stand for it? Perhaps the Government Accountability Office (GAO) will put an end to the debate. In a report released in February, the GAO says the pilot shortage will become more evident, partially because flight schools report fewer applicants entering training because of escalating costs and higher hour requirements for starting airline pilots. Such costs deter pilots from pursuing a career. As a result, 11 of 12 regional airlines surveyed failed to reach their recruitment goals last year, according to the GAO report.
Is there a pilot shortage at the big jet carriers? No. But here is the reality today: Fewer people are motivated to pay the exceptionally high admission price to the airline industry as an RJ pilot with meager payback in the short term. Those who do hope to cash in eventually with bigger paychecks at the mainline carriers. Maybe it’s just semantics, but the current situation at the lower rungs of the airline career ladder seems to conform to the meaning of “pilot shortage,” and that’s the exact term that the government researchers use.
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