In the August 2012 issue, I talked about the “perfect storm” of events then transpiring to create a pilot shortage (“Career Pilot: Perfect Storm for Pilot Shortage”). I mentioned that the 1,500-hour rule—the modification of the age-60 retirement rule—and the rewrite of the flight- and duty-time rules for pilots operating Part 121 flights could set the stage for an industry-altering event.
The reality has set in, and the predictions made then have proven mostly true, with some caveats. Despite years of notice, many airlines got caught with their pants down regarding the revised flight time/duty time rules. Airlines loathe hiring pilots and, by not doing so before the rules took effect, were collectively forced to delay or cancel thousands of flights. The new rules require pilots to get more rest, which means they are not available to fly as many hours as they used to and require longer breaks between duty periods. In turn, that required more fresh pilots—pilots that many airlines didn’t have. Smaller regional airlines cried “pilot shortage” when, in reality, they simply didn’t prepare adequately for the new regs.
No surprise here, but the impending retirement of thousands of pilots from the major airlines was easily predicted, and airlines were prepared for the new job openings that resulted. In December 2007, the mandatory retirement age of airline pilots went from age 60 to 65. With the economic downturn of 2008, most pilots elected to stay employed until 65—or close to it. The result was a stagnation of movement at most airlines. No retirements; no movement; no new hiring. But in December 2012, the floodgates of retirements opened again, allowing thousands of pilots to backfill the ranks and opening the gate to new hires.
But when you raise the minimum flight hours required to 1,500, where will qualified new hires come from? Starting in August 2013, pilots hired by airlines operating under Part 121 regulations need 1,500 hours of flight time and an airline transport pilot (ATP) certificate, barring a few exceptions. This somewhat flawed ruling was the result of the outcry after the Colgan Air crash in Buffalo, New York, in 2009. Both pilots in the Colgan crash had far more than 1,500 hours, which brings to question the ruling’s actual effect.
Obtaining 1,500 hours is a substantial investment of time and money for a new pilot. And money is not something most young folks have falling out of their pockets. You could drag banners along the beach or fly pipeline patrol for a few years to build time and draw a modest salary, but those are hazardous jobs that don’t really hone the skills required to fly airliners. You could accrue hours as a flight instructor, which keeps you sharp on regulations and instrument flying skills, and it pays modestly. But flight instructors are limited to flying mostly piston airplanes in decent weather below 10,000 feet. Some lucky pilots may score a gig with a corporate flight department or charter company that has high-end piston- or turbine-powered aircraft, which would provide the real-world, all-weather experience airlines and other companies want in their pilot candidates.
Obtaining an ATP and 1,500 hours of flight time is likely to substantially increase the already daunting cost of becoming a professional pilot. And when professional pilots must spend as many as five to 15 years making pitiful to modest salaries at regional airlines, for example, the cost/benefit analysis becomes a depressing exercise. Why would anyone commit to a career path that could cost upward of $200,000 to qualify for a job that pays food-stamp wages?
The airlines are describing this as a “pilot shortage.” The Air Line Pilots Association says it’s not a pilot shortage, just a shortage of pilots willing to work for substandard wages, inadequate benefits, and questionable career potential. The U.S. Government Accountability Office seemed to side with ALPA on this issue in a report it released in February 2014. The GAO believes there is a large pool of pilots from which the airlines could tap, but whether those pilots are willing or available to work at the wages being offered is unknown.
The airlines may need to acknowledge that becoming a new first officer at a regional airline is not an entry-level position. By the time most pilots get to that point, they have a substantial amount of time and money invested in their training and had prior flying jobs. Just because it wasn’t an airline job doesn’t mean it wasn’t a flying job.
Unionized pilots at Envoy (formerly American Eagle), ExpressJet, and Republic Airways recently took a stand against the longstanding pay/benefit issues in the regional airline ranks by turning down contracts proposed by airline management. It’s a bold and risky move, but it’s one that nearly all pilots agree must be taken to improve quality of life and attract new blood. Airlines appear to be listening. Some are now offering signing bonuses and other incentives to get pilots to join the ranks.
Just 15 years ago, airlines were getting away with making pilots pay for their own training. Perhaps we are seeing the beginning of a new era in which pilots receive compensation commensurate with their level of responsibility.
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