Flying Life: Trust your Instincts

Although logical decision-making processes are certainly valuable, there is something perhaps even more powerful that we generally ignore in aviation. Call it a sixth sense or intuition or just an uneasy feeling, but it’s important that we learn to pay attention to our own emotional reactions.

I can hear the critics saying there’s no place for feelings in the cockpit. I can appreciate this sentiment. But hear me out. What if this idea that gut reactions can be accurate is actually based on science? In his book Blink, about the power of decisions made in the blink of an eye, best-selling author Malcolm Gladwell describes a study in which researchers gave a group of gamblers four different card decks, two blue and two red. When gamblers flipped each card over, they either won or lost some money, depending on the card. What the gamblers do not know is that the red cards are high-risk decks, with big rewards and an even bigger chance of losing money. The blue decks, on the other hand, have relatively low rewards, but lower penalties, making them statistically the safest choice for making money in the long run. After about 80 cards, most of the participants could logically explain why the blue decks were a better choice. The interesting part is that each gambler was also hooked up to a machine that measured stress levels by noting temperature and sweat levels on the gamblers’ palms. After only the tenth card, the machines started picking up higher stress responses to the red cards, although the gamblers could not articulate the reason for their feelings. In his book, Gladwell gives numerous examples to support the idea that our unconscious conclusions can often be just as accurate as more deliberate decision-making strategies.

Accident reports are full of cockpit voice recorder transcripts that indicate the pilots sensed something was amiss, but ignored their instincts.Accident reports are full of cockpit voice recorder transcripts that indicate the pilots sensed something was amiss, but ignored their own instincts. The deadliest accident in aviation history took place on the Spanish island of Tenerife when a departing KLM Boeing 747 collided with a back-taxiing Pan Am 747 in low-visibility conditions. The voice of the KLM flight engineer can be heard on the CVR prior to takeoff, saying, “Is he not clear that Pan American?” If the flight engineer had known the runway was not clear, he would have been much more emphatic about his concerns. But somewhere in his mind, he had an uneasy feeling—one that, if acted on, would have saved 583 lives.

In 1978, United Airlines Flight 173 crashed short of Portland International Airport, after running out of fuel while trying to diagnose a landing-gear malfunction. The first officer obviously had a feeling there was a fuel issue and mentioned the fuel several times during the hour spent circling the area, although he never made an actual calculation. The NTSB determined one of the causes of the accident was that the crewmembers failed to “fully comprehend the criticality of the fuel state.”

Or take American Airlines Flight 965, where a Boeing 757 crashed into mountainous terrain near Buga, Colombia, after losing situational awareness in instrument conditions. The crew questioned their position at several times during the approach, with the captain at one point stating about his navigational equipment, “Just doesn’t look right on mine. I don’t know why.” Although they obviously felt anxious, the crew never took the steps to determine their position and make a correction.

As pilots, we’ve all had those palm-sweating moments when we feel that something is not right. Here’s hoping that we can learn to trust our instincts and act on those feelings on the tenth card, rather than waiting until the eightieth. It could mean the difference between “something doesn’t look right” and “terrain, terrain, pull up.”

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