Uber is working it. Google is in research and development. Ford is exploring ways forward. Autonomous cars are the future of the auto industry. Slipping into a sedan minus a human being behind the steering wheel is a bit freaky. What happens when that machine enters an icy intersection and is about to be T-boned by a semi? Placing one’s health in the digital hands of driverless autos takes a giant leap of faith.
Now, imagine the next step. As you board a Boeing 787 at O’Hare International Airport in Chicago bound for Miami, you peer into the flight deck and there is nobody there (with the exception, perhaps, of a dog that will bite anyone who touches anything). Pilotless airplanes? Pure fantasy? Well, they’re not.
The investment bank UBS took a good look at the potential of autonomous commercial airplanes in a recent far-ranging study and concluded, “Pilotless planes will save the industry huge dollars and slash fares for passengers who could see prices drop about 11 percent.” For aspiring airline pilots, this excerpt from the UBS study should produce shivers: “The biggest savings will come from reducing the cost of employing pilots. UBS estimated that pilots cost the industry billions annually”—the UBS study predicts that flights will be safe, as the potential for pilot error will be removed.
The technology for such Jetsons travel already exists—think military drones.
Airliners can take off, cruise, and land using on-board computers, so why not program them remotely while monitoring the flight at an operations control center?Boeing is taking a first step toward pilotless airplanes. Mike Sinnett, Boeing’s vice president of product development, said, “The basic building blocks of the technology clearly are available.” Airliners can already take off, cruise, and land using the flight-management system and an array of on-board computers, so why not program them remotely via satellite link while monitoring the flight at an operations control center?
Sinnett, who is a manned airplane pilot, plans to test the technology in a cockpit simulator and fly on an airplane next year utilizing artificial intelligence that makes decisions pilots normally would make.
Of course, self-flying passenger aircraft would need to meet FAA safety standards and regulations, but the challenge is that the regulators don’t know quite how to pull it all together because pilotless flight is uncharted territory. How does the FAA even begin to develop a regulatory framework—and who gets the violation for an airspace bust?
Sinnett says, “When I look at the future, I see a need for, you know, 41,000 commercial airplanes over the course of the next 20 years. And that means we’re going to need something like 617,000 more pilots. So, one of the ways that may be solved is by having some type of autonomous behavior and that could be anything from taking instead of five pilots on a long-haul flight down to two or three; taking two pilots down to one in freight situations; or, in some cases, from one to none.” But, Sinnett asserts, a self-flying airplane would need to be able to land safely even in an emergency, as US Airways Capt. Chesley “Sully” Sullenberger did in the “Miracle on the Hudson.” If it can’t, then we can’t go there.
Airbus, not quite on the scale as Boeing, currently is working on autonomous flying cars and will test prototype single-seat flying taxis with a rollout planned for 2021. Of course, the FAA has had its hands full with drones; imagine a sky full of pilotless Ubers!
As can be expected, pilot unions are not enthusiastically embracing the idea of automated, pilotless airplanes. “We have concerns that in the excitement of this futuristic idea, some may be forgetting the reality of pilotless air travel,” said Steve Landells of the British Airline Pilots’ Association. “Computers can fail and often do, and someone is still needed to work that computer. Most of us own some sort of electronic device that can do amazing things; however, a human is still required to operate it.” Landells figures that pilotless flight will never become a reality. “What is more likely to happen is that pilots are moved to the ground rather than being on board.”
There’s an old saying, “But how will it play in Peoria?” With all of the hoopla about pilotless flight, would you and mom hop on that 787 to Miami? UBS surveyed 8,000 people, and some 54 percent said they would refuse to fly in an airplane with no pilot on board, even if the flight cost less. Respondents between age 18 and 34 and those who had a university degree were more willing to fly without a pilot. The report said, “This bodes well for the technology as the population ages.” UBS suggested that initially the traditional two-pilot setup will be reduced to one on-board pilot and one pilot on the ground. Imagine you are that one lone pilot up front on the four-hour red-eye from Anchorage to Seattle!
If you are in the midst of grinding away toward certificates and ratings with a goal of an airline career, chances are you still have a good shot at flying real airplanes from a real flight deck. That future pilot just coming out of the maternity ward; well, that might be a whole different story.
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