Policy analysis: Future state

It is estimated that the shortage of professional pilots will hit 5,000 by 2021. But there has been a 21-percent decrease in commercial pilots in the past 10 years. The problem extends to the military, as well. U.S. Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson said the service is short 2,000 pilots, or 10 percent of its force, including about 1,300 fighter pilots.

“This issue goes far beyond what the government can do,” said Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao about the pilot shortage. “It is incumbent upon all of us to find solutions.”

So, what can be done? Here is a sampling of suggestions gleaned from aviation forums. Do you agree with any?

1. Revisit the ATP rule, requiring an airline transport pilot certificate for first officers. The military can train someone to fly a jet fighter in 300 hours. So why can’t a strict, FAA-approved training curriculum, administered by a Part 141 school, and incorporating Transport-category simulation do the same in 500 hours by focusing on airline professionalism and operations from day one rather than training Cessna 172 instructors?
   
   The Europeans have been doing this for decades. The practice is a political hot potato, but the alternative is parking more aircraft for lack of talent.
2. Revamp the notion of forced retirement at age 65 for airline pilots. Pass a first class medical examination at any age along with new heart, blood, and mental agility tests and keep on flying—right seat at least, even in Part 121. Some pretty sharp airmen still fly Gulfstreams and Cessna Citations well into their 70s in the corporate, Part 135, and Part 91 Subpart K worlds.
3. Follow the lead of foreign carriers like Lufthansa: Recruit talent while they are young, and train those pilots at company expense from the first hour after private pilot through the flight deck of an Airbus, either in partnership with a flight training institution or at its own academy, such as at Qantas. The price of admission is too steep for most mere mortals.
4. Ramp up the outreach. Career fairs for college freshmen and sophomores who are still considering college majors can be hosted by the FAA, Air Line Pilots Association, and the airlines. Every airline pilot should actively target potential future pilots and serve as pitchmen and mentors to their circles of acquaintance. Promote a mid-life career change via direct marketing to those certificated pilots who deferred their airline pilot dreams because life intervened. Perhaps consider part-time or contract positions as in the 135 world.
5. Reach out to older CFIs who attend flight instructor refresher clinics (FIRCs) and offer a gainful retirement gig as a part-time instructor. Target CFIs of retirement age in the FAA airmen database and offer a position that is invigorating and will keep them young while hanging out with the future pros. Sure beats sitting around the fishing hole, not to mention it’s a good Social Security supplement.

Looking 10 to 20 years into the future, will technology mitigate the workforce crises? Legislation recently has cleared Congress that mandates the FAA study the concept of single-pilot cockpits for cargo aircraft. The industry pushed back quickly. “We are getting way ahead of ourselves, trying to find a way to integrate drones and drone technology into our national airspace system,” said Lee Collins, president of the 33,000-member Coalition of Airline Pilots Associations. “The industry that wants this is frustrated by the pace it’s going at and want it to go much faster. It’s a giant power grab to increase bottom-line profit margins for companies that have this technology.” ALPA President Tom Carroll also spoke out against the legislation. But are single-pilot airliners—and even autonomous aircraft—in our future?

There are real issues that need to be addressed in the short term to fill the flight decks of waiting airliners. What do we do now, not a year from now? Long-term, will the flying public tolerate pilotless airplanes—and what would that do to the professional pilot population? A more important question might be, “What happens when the engines ingest a flock of birds and the machine needs to be put down into a river, or the hydraulics give way near Sioux City, Iowa?” If you have any suggestions, let us know.