The pipeline squeeze

Across the aviation industry, the need for pilots, mechanics, flight instructors, air traffic controllers, and cabin crew is enormous. CAE's 2025 Aviation Talent Forecast estimates civil aviation will need nearly 1.5 million new professionals worldwide by 2034, including 300,000 pilots and 416,000 aircraft maintenance technicians. Similarly, Boeing's 2026 Pilot and Technician Outlook predicts the aviation industry will need to fill 2.4 million jobs over the coming two decades.

Yet talk to applicants looking for work today and the picture can seem strangely different. Hiring has slowed from the post-pandemic surge. Employers can be more selective. Experience requirements are creeping upward, and pilots who earned their certificates, built hours, and got qualified can find themselves waiting for the next opportunity.

How can an industry that needs so many people be so difficult to break into? The answer may be hiding in the pipeline.

Hiring data compiled by Future and Active Pilot Advisors shows U.S. major airlines hired 13,128 pilots in 2022 and 12,196 in 2023. Hiring subsequentially declined. Through July 2026, the major airlines tracked by FAPA hired 3,863 pilots this year, with hiring continuing to climb. The post-pandemic hiring frenzy may have passed, but there are signs the market is settling into a steadier rhythm. Tim Genc, FAPA's chief career advisor, said the market entered 2026 with expectations that major airlines could hire roughly 8,000 candidates during the year. Genc pointed to rising fuel costs, aircraft availability, and geopolitical uncertainty as factors that can affect hiring. The FAA Aerospace Forecasts Fiscal Years 2026-2046 also confirms this. Meanwhile, experienced pilots displaced from Spirit Airlines have entered an already competitive applicant pool.

"We are still looking at higher and higher retirements every single year," Genc said.

The paradox is that aviation can have plenty of qualified candidates looking for jobs today while still needing more in the future. Genc said this happens because many employers are choosing from the same group of applicants. "You've got the same ten thousand pilots that everyone else does," he said.

When employers have more talent to choose from, they can set higher hiring standards. For example, a regional airline that once accepted pilots with the minimum 25 hours of multiengine flight experience may now prefer pilots with 50 or even 100 hours. Other qualifications, such as completing ATP-CTP training, having turbine aircraft experience, or earning a four-year degree, can help candidates stand out.

Departures at the major airlines create vacancies at regional, charter, cargo, and other operations, which then recruit pilots to replace those who moved up. Eventually that movement reaches pilots looking to secure their first professional job. "If they're not moving, the people below them aren't moving," Genc said.

But there is another problem—the person beginning training today isn't an immediate replacement for the person leaving at the end of a career. Retiring professionals take decades of accumulated experience with them, and replacing that expertise takes time. Joanne Damato, senior vice president of education, training, and workforce development at the National Business Aviation Association, said the workforce change extends across aviation, not just the airlines.

"We are all competing for the same pool," Damato said. "The pipeline extends from the most senior captain retiring to the most junior person who's ready to take their first flight lesson." That is why NBAA is looking not only at young adults entering aviation, but also at military personnel and midcareer professionals who may bring transferable experience.

Damato said attracting people to aviation remains essential, but the industry also has to show prospective entrants how a career is achievable and connect them with the resources to get there. That includes conferences and networking opportunities such as NBAA's Business Aviation Convention and Exhibition, scheduled for October 13 through 15 in Orlando, Florida.

"We hooked another one. We're reeling them in," Damato said. But bringing someone into aviation is only the first step. FAA data illustrates why that distinction deserves more attention. In 2025, the FAA counted 887,519 active pilots. Of those, 370,286—nearly 42 percent—were in the student category. The reported number of pilots in training comes with an important caveat: Student pilot certificates issued since April 2016 do not expire, creating what the FAA describes as a cumulative increase in that category.

The data cannot tell us how many students are actively training, how many will eventually earn their certificate, or how many have been quietly left behind. Before aviation spends another decade asking how to attract people, it may be worth finding out what is happening to the hundreds of thousands who have already taken their first flight. Recruiting people into aviation is only the beginning. The challenge may be helping them get through the pipeline. And even in a soft hiring market, opportunities have not disappeared.

JSX, a public charter service, is actively recruiting both first officers and experienced pilots, according to Director of Talent Acquisition Carlos Cruz.

JSX said it considers overall flight experience, recency, training history, professionalism, preparation, and how well a candidate aligns with its safety and service culture. The company said its hiring plans are influenced by company growth, fleet plans, operational needs, natural attrition, and the capacity to train new hires. In other words, an operator's need for flight crew and its ability to hire them are not the same thing.

Aviation hiring is often described with two numbers: the people entering the field and forecasts showing how many professionals the industry will need years from now. What's harder to see is everything in between. Every transition is a place where the pipeline can narrow.