The FAA foresees declines in the number of new student pilots continuing through 2005 before beginning a slow turnaround. AOPA said the FAA's analysis was faulty. AOPA contends that student pilots will increase some 16 to 20 percent in the next five years.
AOPA estimated that the FAA underreported the number of student pilots by some 13 percent. The underreporting was caused in part by a system change implemented in late 1999. A switch to an electronic-based reporting system, combined with a change in reporting responsibilities within FAA offices, generated a large number of "orphan" records. These orphan records are student pilots who weren't counted. And the FAA apparently projected this inaccurate data into the future, forecasting a continuing decline in student pilot numbers. But when the orphan records are counted, the number of students actually increased marginally in 2000 and 2001.
"The FAA pilot population forecast is based on erroneous assumptions," said Tim Pennington, AOPA manager of statistics and analytics. "After extensive review of the data, we determined that the total number of student certificates held has been understated for the past two years."
Using accurate historical numbers, AOPA projected that there will be 96,000 student pilots in 2002 (instead of the FAA forecast of 83,000). And by 2006, there will be 104,000 student pilots, according to AOPA's projections, while the FAA forecast that only 250 would be added to the total.
Airline Pilot Hiring Continues, Company Reports
More than 1,440 new airline pilots have been hired so far this year, according to Kit Darby, president of career consulting firm AIR, Inc. He said that more than 250 pilots met with representatives of 10 major, national, and regional airlines during a career fair held recently in Los Angeles. "The terrorist attacks of September 11 put a damper on the airline industry as a whole; however, things are slowly turning around, and we're hopeful that by the end of the year pilot hiring will be on track," Darby said. AIR, Inc.'s next Airline Pilot Career Seminar, Airline Forum, and Career Fair will be held in Atlanta on July 13. For more information, visit the Web site (www.jet-jobs.com ).
Veteran Pilot Awards Scholarships
Joe Cozza, Tyler Kolden, and Greg Peterson, aviation students at the University of North Dakota's John D. Odegard School of Aerospace Sciences, have each received a $12,500 Clay Lacy Professional Pilot Scholarship in recognition of their flight abilities, academic achievements, and accomplishments. Of the amount, $10,000 will apply toward flight training expenses at UND, and $2,500 will be allocated to defray expenses for participation in a co-op program at the EAA Aviation Center in Oshkosh, Wisconsin. Lacy, in addition to his airline and military career, was a test pilot and flew in the early Reno Air Races. His company, Clay Lacy Aviation, has grown to include a charter fleet of 20 jets including Learjets, Gulfstreams, and Boeing 727s.
Web Site Identifies Current Icing Conditions
Meteorologists and dispatchers may now use operationally a new weather graphic that identifies the current potential for icing at various altitudes anywhere in the lower 48 states.
The new planning tool became operational March 27 on the Aviation Digital Data Service Web site (http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov). The FAA-funded effort was conducted by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado, in conjunction with the FAA and its subcontractors. Experimental capability to predict icing three, six, and 12 hours in the future is going online soon.
General aviation pilots can use the new Current Icing Potential (CIP) chart for information, but they may not base flight-planning decisions on it until instructions for its use have been printed in the Aeronautical Information Manual. Given bureaucratic requirements for approval of the text and terminology, don't expect the new icing information to become operational at the GA level until mid-summer.
The CIP charts show only areas where there is a potential for icing, but they do not predict severity. That capability is also under development, and may be available in winter 2003. Thus, the warmer colors painted on a map of the United States indicate that icing is likely in that area, but they do not indicate severity. The icing may be only a trace, or it could be severe.
The map is drawn by continuously combining information from a computer weather model with that from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, all Nexrad weather radars in the lower 48 states, all surface observations, and all pilot reports. The computer programming needed to accomplish that task has been in development since 1998. Since the map does not include Alaska, a special computer model has been created for that state; it will be tested by PenAir, a commuter airline in Alaska.
The new research tools are vital to aviation safety. Notable crashes caused by icing in the past include the 1950s accident that killed rock-and-roll legends Buddy Holly, Ritchie Valens, and The Big Bopper (J.P. Richardson); the 1994 crash of an American Eagle ATR-72 near Roselawn, Indiana, that killed 68 people; and an Embraer 120RT that crashed on approach to Detroit in 1997, killing 29.
Alton K. Marsh
Officials Name Cessna Pilot Top Instructor
Kirby Ortega has been named National Flight Instructor of the Year for 2002 by a panel of general aviation industry and FAA officials. Ortega, of Wichita, Kansas, serves as the supervisor for training at Cessna Aircraft Company. He started flying in 1974 through the Cessna Employees Flying Club and is checked out in all Cessna aircraft from single-engine piston airplanes to jets. "I'm hoping that with this designation I can put it to use in a positive manner for the next year benefiting general aviation," he said.
Cessna, FlightSafety Extend Training Program
Cessna Aircraft Company and FlightSafety International have signed a 15-year agreement that extends the school's role as the factory authorized training organization for all Citation and Caravan aircraft.
Since the two companies inked the first partnership in 1980, FlightSafety has provided more than 90,000 pilot and maintenance technician courses for Citation and Caravan aircraft. FlightSafety Learning Centers that provide Cessna training in the United States are located in Wichita, Kansas; Toledo, Ohio; Long Beach, California; San Antonio, Texas; and Atlanta.
"Our customers have received excellent training from FlightSafety's extensive simulator and maintenance training programs. This is substantiated by the safety record of the Citation and Caravan fleet," said Gary Hay, Cessna chairman and CEO.
School News
University Of North Carolina To Close Public Airport
The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill stunned the aviation community April 30 when it announced that it would close Horace Williams Airport (IGX).
Chancellor James Moeser said the public-use airport, owned by the university, "has become a financial drain and requires major safety-related improvements not consistent with the university's commitment to positive town relations."
The decision by the state-owned school came without official public discussion. Even the university's own MedAir unit, which flies Beech Barons and a King Air from IGX to transport doctors and medical faculty to outlying areas, was surprised by the announcement. A flying club formerly based at the airport relocated earlier. "Horace Williams provides vital aviation transportation to local community members, tourists, alumni, and university guests," said AOPA President Phil Boyer. "Our more than 380,000 members nationwide, including many Tar Heels, ask the university to reconsider."
School Opens Three New Facilities
Airline Transport Professionals Inc., which provides accelerated pilot training, has opened three new training centers. They are located in Bowling Green, Kentucky; Lakeland, Florida; and Long Beach, California. ATP now offers pilot training in 21 U.S. locations and operates a fleet of 75 aircraft. For more information, visit the Web site (www.allatps.com).
ATP Inc. also is offering a program that allows students to get multiengine time for slightly less than $100 an hour. The 35-hour ASAP Multi-PIC program requires seven days to complete and costs $3,495. It was specifically set up for low-time pilots who need the experience for airline employment or insurance approval.
The company trains in a fleet of Piper Seminoles. The program will be initially offered in Atlanta and Jacksonville, Florida. For more information, see the Web site.
Columbia 300 Joins Flight School Line
After a five-year wait, a flight school in New York is now offering a Lancair Columbia 300 for instruction and rental. The fixed-gear composite airplane features a 190-kt cruise speed.
"The Lancair Columbia 300's combination of high-speed capabilities, simplicity, and ultra-modern avionics has previously been available in only expensive, complex, multiengine aircraft," said Louis Mancuso, president of Mid Island Air Service on Long Island. "The superior design and technology of this aircraft makes it an attractive addition to our fleet of rental aircraft."
For rates and more information, contact Andrew Berk, 631/588-5400, or visit the Web site (www.midislandair.com ).
California Flight School Under New Ownership
When United Flight Services of Watsonville, California, announced that it was up for sale, Alicia Marquez and Bob Ross jumped into action. They thought it would be a shame to see the "long-time pillar" of the Watsonville Municipal Airport close its doors.
Late last year the two formed Monterey Bay Aviation Inc., which eventually bought United Flight Services in January. What urged them on was the importance of fostering the freedom to fly. "The tragic events of September 11 only reinforced this belief and actually spurred us into action that ultimately led to the decision to purchase the business ourselves," Ross said.
The new owners are expanding the former company's fleet of five aircraft. The newest acquisitions are a Piper Archer for instrument training and a Piper Arrow for commercial work. For more information, see the school's Web site (www.united-flight.com ).
Purdue Becomes Amelia Earhart Clearinghouse
Purdue University has become the largest repository for all things Amelia Earhart. Thanks to a gift from her family of nearly 500 of Earhart's personal papers and memorabilia, the school now stores the most comprehensive collection of materials related to her life, career, and mysterious disappearance. Many of the artifacts have not been seen by the public. Earhart, who disappeared over the Pacific in 1937, served as a visiting instructor at Purdue starting in 1935. The announcement of the contribution this week also kicked off the school's "Countdown to 100 Years of Flight" celebration that honors the Wright brothers.
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