It’s tough being stuck in the pipeline. Ask Mike Krause, who graduated Oklahoma State’s aviation program in May 2009. Many months later, he finds himself picking up occasional instructing gigs and bumming rides in a friend's Mooney. Like so many graduates from the nation’s aviation colleges, academies, and neighborhood flight schools, Krause is hoping the next hiring boom is just around the corner. Until then, students are picking up odd jobs such as banner towing, hauling skydivers, instructing overseas, and even pumping gas at the FBO.
In a survey of a handful of aviation colleges such as Eastern Michigan University, Jacksonville University, Northwestern Michigan College, Liberty University, Hesston College, and the University of Illinois, the news is that most are doing their best to hire their own graduates as CFIs for the flight program. Thankfully, of those leaving campus, the majority of graduates have found some kind of work in the industry, even if it’s working the counter at the local airport.
School admissions representatives are having their challenges, too. How do you sell a graduating high school senior, and mom and dad, on investing in an aviation career that looks dark and gloomy? The answer is simple: Prepare now for the next inevitable surge in hiring. When hiring was skyrocketing in 2007, it was not the time to wake up one morning and say, “Gee! I want to be a professional pilot!” The beneficiaries of the 2007 hiring frenzy made their career decisions years before.
Regional airline Compass has been reported as interviewing. It isn’t much, but it seems to be a start. And there is evidence that business flying and hiring are up as well.
Airliner manufacturers have also released some cautiously optimistic news.
Airbus sees airlines acquiring some 25,000 aircraft over the next 20 years to the tune of $3.1 trillion—up 3 percent from the company’s February 2008 forecast. That’s a very bullish forecast for an airline industry that could see about an $11 billion loss this year. The Airbus forecast anticipates that air traffic will double within 15 years.
Similarly, Boeing sees demand for some 29,000 aircraft worth $3.2 trillion over the next two decades. However, Boeing does not expect the near term to look quite as rosy. Boeing’s forecast predicts traffic to fall off as much as 8 percent this year, with an uptick anticipated in 2011.
There is some solid speculation by industry watchers such as Louis Smith, who runs FltOps.com, that 2011 could launch the next hiring surge. Smith predicts, “By the spring 2010, some airlines will begin to recall furloughed pilots or recruit new pilots, thus triggering attrition and the need for hiring at the feeder companies. By spring 2011, every major airline will be recruiting pilots off the street.”
Why? In part, because when the FAA extended the mandatory retirement age for airline pilots to age 65 in late 2007, many 60-year-old pilots decided to hang on to their jobs out of necessity. There’s no doubt that within the next two to four years, many left seats on the flight deck will be vacated for that first officer in the right seat. In turn, regional airline captains will move up to right seat of a major airline. Folks at Delta Connection Academy in Sanford, Florida—which has been training regional pilots for a few decades—sense that some issues ahead could truly result in a serious shortfall of piloting talent. DCA convened a pilot career summit, inviting a variety of stakeholders in the pilot training field, including colleges, universities, and other academies. “Today, most airlines are not concerned with the pilot shortage. However, after every furlough there is typically a hiring frenzy,” DCA said. “With the current low numbers in the pipeline at training academies and universities, future hiring is at risk.”
For those stuck in the pipeline right now, two to four years can seem like an eternity. There are opportunities to keep rust from forming on those skills:
Fly for the Civil Air Patrol. Some of the flying is free in squadron Cessnas, and for a worthwhile cause.
Look into flying for the Coast Guard Auxiliary or for an organization such as Angel Flight. The flying is not without cost but there are ways of reducing tax liability because of these charitable pursuits.
Invest in a leaseback arrangement with a local flight school. There are many tax advantages and you could get to fly for a significant discount (www.aopa.org keyword Leaseback).
Start a scenic flight company. Print some flyers and rack cards for distribution to hotel concierges. Work a deal with the FBO to rent its airplanes for air tours; consider insurance provisions and read the regulations carefully (FARs 91.146 and 91.147).
If a parent or relative owns an airplane, consider starting a single-pilot/single-engine Part 135 air taxi company. It’s tricky, but doable.
Become an expert in some form of instruction, such as technologically advanced aircraft or Garmin G1000 training, and market yourself as such.
Round up friends, neighbors, relatives, and pals once or twice per month and take them for a $200 hamburger. Share the costs according to the regulations and reduce your own expenses for staying fresh (www.aopa.org keyword Sharing cost).
Hang in there and maintain proficiency until the next boom, which will come.
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