Accident Analysis: Calculate your risks
Are you on top of your game?
Although the investigation is likely to take a year or more, the few facts that were known right away are enough to guide a wider discussion of risk assessment and management: The airplane was a 1969 model B55. On board were three adults and three teenagers. Even after flying to Virginia from a fuel stop in Indiana, it couldn’t have been considered lightly loaded, and the weather was warm. At the time of the accident, about half an hour after noon, density altitude at their destination (elevation 85 feet msl) was some 2,630 feet.
Fredericksburg’s Shannon Airport has a short runway: a nominal 2,999 feet, with displaced thresholds at both ends. The Virginia State Police reported that the Baron touched down about halfway down the runway, then lifted off again and crashed into the woods in an apparent go-around attempt. Fire consumed most of the aircraft.
The pilot held a commercial certificate with instrument rating for airplane single-engine land, single-engine sea, and multiengine land, as well as an airplane and powerplant mechanic’s certificate. He’d received a fresh second-class medical in May.
Put yourself in his place on a flight with a similar profile, and think about:
Destinations: Stafford County Regional Airport, with a 5,000-foot runway, is less than 10 nautical miles away. Granted, it would have been an inconvenience—but there are taxicabs. Touching down with 3,500 feet to go would have been a nonevent. Touching down in a fully loaded Baron with less than 1,500 feet remaining is uncomfortable, at best.
Decisions: Landing at Shannon was feasible...if everything worked as planned, including touching down just beyond the displaced threshold. If it began to look like you’d be landing long, how much altitude and airspeed would you be willing to surrender before committing to going around? And just how much do you want to bet on being absolutely on top of your game?
